481 Greenbriar Ct

Oak Run, IL 61428

$175,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,473 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Active · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,097/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$411
• HOA: −$45
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $-507/mo
• Annual: $-6,087/yr
• Cap rate: 2.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.42%
• DSCR: 0.45
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-507 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $85k (51.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (37.3% below list).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $85k (51.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#556 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Williamsfield CUSD 210 (rural): math 40% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #225 of 919 in IL (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Williamsfield High School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #357 of 693 statewide, top 54%, 96 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 30% district-wide (30 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-25 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Williamsfield CUSD 210 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP.
• Knox County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.