16135 Bottle Rock Rd

Cobb, CA 95426

$225,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · Built 1944 · SingleFamily · Active · 220 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,740/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$318
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-123/mo
• Annual: $-1,474/yr
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.34%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (22.7% below list).
• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $133 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#589 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Middletown Unified (rural): math 24% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #291 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cobb Mountain Elementary (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #621 of 1,571 statewide, top 42%, 135 students, 51% FRL); Middletown Middle (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #170 of 498 statewide, top 35%, 232 students, 54% FRL); Middletown High (math 8% / reading 37%, grade F, #942 of 1,170 statewide, top 81%, 420 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $225k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.