16135 Bottle Rock Rd · Cobb, CA 95426

$225,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 220 Days on market

Built 1944 9,583 sqft lot $383/sqft · 9% below area Est $247k · 9% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

take a break from the fast pace of modern life in this freshly remodeled mountain retreat, nestled under the pines in the beautiful vacation village of Cobb mountain. thoughtfully updated for comfort while maintaining its rustic charm and connection to the land, the living room features a cozy wood burning stove and access to the back deck , a perfect space to BBQ under the mature pine trees over head. newly insulated walls and a brand new roof adorn this cute little cabin for many years of worry free living. bathroom features a large corner shower a new detail mirror and vanity cabinet. outside the cabin sits on a double lot offering many opportunities for relaxation, including a bench swing and a Hamock.

Key facts

• Mature pine trees
• Back deck
• Large corner shower

Tags

• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• BACK DECK
• MATURE PINE TREES
• NEWLY INSULATED WALLS
• NEW ROOF
• LARGE CORNER SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#589 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Middletown Unified (rural): math 24% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #291 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cobb Mountain Elementary (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #621 of 1,571 statewide, top 42%, 135 students, 51% FRL); Middletown Middle (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #170 of 498 statewide, top 35%, 232 students, 54% FRL); Middletown High (math 8% / reading 37%, grade F, #942 of 1,170 statewide, top 81%, 420 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $133 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $225k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,003 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.34%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $246,684
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -8.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-21,020
• Equity at exit: $58,308

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-6,150
• Equity at exit: $64,703

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95426

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,740 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,686/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,896

Max offer price $203,296

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5	-5% $-59	+0% $-123	+5% $-187	+10% $-250
Rent	-10% $-260	-5% $-192	+0% $-123	+5% $-54	+10% $15
Rate	-1.0pp $-10	-0.5pp $-66	base $-123	+0.5pp $-181	+1.0pp $-240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 220 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $225,000 Active 218 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 217 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 216 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 214 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 212 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 211 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 209 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $225,000 Active 208 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 207 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 206 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 203 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 202 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 201 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 200 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 199 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 198 DOM
19. 2025-11-13
    listed $225,000 Active 717-char remark

    Show marketing remark (717 chars)

    take a break from the fast pace of modern life in this freshly remodeled mountain retreat, nestled under the pines in the beautiful vacation village of Cobb mountain. thoughtfully updated for comfort while maintaining its rustic charm and connection to the land, the living room features a cozy wood burning stove and access to the back deck , a perfect space to BBQ under the mature pine trees over head. newly insulated walls and a brand new roof adorn this cute little cabin for many years of worry free living. bathroom features a large corner shower a new detail mirror and vanity cabinet. outside the cabin sits on a double lot offering many opportunities for relaxation, including a bench swing and a Hamock.

20. 2025-02-24
    soldstatus $90,000 Closed 736-char remark

    Show marketing remark (736 chars)

    Nestled in the serene Pine Grove area of Cobb Mountain, this charming 1 bedroom, i bathroom cabin offers a peaceful retreat surrounded by nature. Set on a spacious double sized lot, the property provides plenty of room for outdoor activities, or potential expansion. Inside, the cabin features a cozy wood stove for warmth and comfort, perfect for cooler mountain evenings. A spacious deck provides the ideal spot to relax and enjoy the tranquil surroundings. While this cabin is in need of some repairs and updates, it presents a fantastic opportunity for someone with vision to make it their own. Whether you're seeking a weekend getaway or a full time mountain home, this cabin is ready for the right person to bring it back to life.

21. 2025-02-24
    soldstatus $90,000 Closed Sale

    Show marketing remark (736 chars)

    Nestled in the serene Pine Grove area of Cobb Mountain, this charming 1 bedroom, i bathroom cabin offers a peaceful retreat surrounded by nature. Set on a spacious double sized lot, the property provides plenty of room for outdoor activities, or potential expansion. Inside, the cabin features a cozy wood stove for warmth and comfort, perfect for cooler mountain evenings. A spacious deck provides the ideal spot to relax and enjoy the tranquil surroundings. While this cabin is in need of some repairs and updates, it presents a fantastic opportunity for someone with vision to make it their own. Whether you're seeking a weekend getaway or a full time mountain home, this cabin is ready for the right person to bring it back to life.

22. 2025-02-24
    soldstatus $90,000

    Show marketing remark (736 chars)

    Nestled in the serene Pine Grove area of Cobb Mountain, this charming 1 bedroom, i bathroom cabin offers a peaceful retreat surrounded by nature. Set on a spacious double sized lot, the property provides plenty of room for outdoor activities, or potential expansion. Inside, the cabin features a cozy wood stove for warmth and comfort, perfect for cooler mountain evenings. A spacious deck provides the ideal spot to relax and enjoy the tranquil surroundings. While this cabin is in need of some repairs and updates, it presents a fantastic opportunity for someone with vision to make it their own. Whether you're seeking a weekend getaway or a full time mountain home, this cabin is ready for the right person to bring it back to life.

23. 2025-02-17
    status Pending Sale
24. 2025-02-09
    historical Active Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (736 chars)

    Nestled in the serene Pine Grove area of Cobb Mountain, this charming 1 bedroom, i bathroom cabin offers a peaceful retreat surrounded by nature. Set on a spacious double sized lot, the property provides plenty of room for outdoor activities, or potential expansion. Inside, the cabin features a cozy wood stove for warmth and comfort, perfect for cooler mountain evenings. A spacious deck provides the ideal spot to relax and enjoy the tranquil surroundings. While this cabin is in need of some repairs and updates, it presents a fantastic opportunity for someone with vision to make it their own. Whether you're seeking a weekend getaway or a full time mountain home, this cabin is ready for the right person to bring it back to life.

25. 2025-02-09
    historical Contingent (Show) 736-char remark

    Show marketing remark (736 chars)

    Nestled in the serene Pine Grove area of Cobb Mountain, this charming 1 bedroom, i bathroom cabin offers a peaceful retreat surrounded by nature. Set on a spacious double sized lot, the property provides plenty of room for outdoor activities, or potential expansion. Inside, the cabin features a cozy wood stove for warmth and comfort, perfect for cooler mountain evenings. A spacious deck provides the ideal spot to relax and enjoy the tranquil surroundings. While this cabin is in need of some repairs and updates, it presents a fantastic opportunity for someone with vision to make it their own. Whether you're seeking a weekend getaway or a full time mountain home, this cabin is ready for the right person to bring it back to life.

26. 2024-11-27
    listed $112,000 Active 736-char remark

    Show marketing remark (736 chars)

    Nestled in the serene Pine Grove area of Cobb Mountain, this charming 1 bedroom, i bathroom cabin offers a peaceful retreat surrounded by nature. Set on a spacious double sized lot, the property provides plenty of room for outdoor activities, or potential expansion. Inside, the cabin features a cozy wood stove for warmth and comfort, perfect for cooler mountain evenings. A spacious deck provides the ideal spot to relax and enjoy the tranquil surroundings. While this cabin is in need of some repairs and updates, it presents a fantastic opportunity for someone with vision to make it their own. Whether you're seeking a weekend getaway or a full time mountain home, this cabin is ready for the right person to bring it back to life.

27. 2024-11-27
    listed $112,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (736 chars)

    Nestled in the serene Pine Grove area of Cobb Mountain, this charming 1 bedroom, i bathroom cabin offers a peaceful retreat surrounded by nature. Set on a spacious double sized lot, the property provides plenty of room for outdoor activities, or potential expansion. Inside, the cabin features a cozy wood stove for warmth and comfort, perfect for cooler mountain evenings. A spacious deck provides the ideal spot to relax and enjoy the tranquil surroundings. While this cabin is in need of some repairs and updates, it presents a fantastic opportunity for someone with vision to make it their own. Whether you're seeking a weekend getaway or a full time mountain home, this cabin is ready for the right person to bring it back to life.

28. 2004-07-16
    soldstatus $100,000
29. 1999-06-28
    soldstatus $30,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,686 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,686 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,686
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,670
• − Management: −$1,670
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$5,420
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,301
• After-tax cash flow: $-174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown Unified
• NCES district ID: 0624750
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,451
• Composite: 28.92/100
• National rank: #6632
• State rank: #291 of 517 in CA

Livability — Cobb

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #589
• US rank: #19147

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cobb, CA
• City population: 1,265
• Population (ZIP): 1,265

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 6% Pacific Islander 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Iranian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.63%
• Current HPI: 145.2378
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+637.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-13 Listed $225,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2025-02-24 Sold (MLS) $90,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-24 Sold (MLS) $90,000 BAREIS
• 2025-02-17 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-02-09 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-02-09 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2024-11-27 Listed $112,000 CRMLS
• 2024-11-27 Listed $112,000 BAREIS
• 2004-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $30,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,686 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.