4558 Cordell Dr

Kettering, OH 45439

$164,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,465/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$397
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $-104/mo
• Annual: $-1,248/yr
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.70%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $46,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (11.1% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $147k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#61 in OH, #922 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• West Carrollton City (suburban): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #540 of 656 in OH (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Carrollton Early Childhood Center (656 students, 45% FRL); West Carrollton Middle School (math 27% / reading 43%, grade F, #546 of 654 statewide, top 83%, 508 students, 62% FRL); West Carrollton High School (math 17% / reading 57%, grade F, #564 of 781 statewide, top 74%, 951 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.3% in Kettering — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.