107 Mossy Creek Way

Ochlocknee, GA 31773

$277,900D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,016 sqft · Built 2006 · SingleFamily · Active · 182 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,429/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,457
• Tax + insurance: −$318
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-647/mo
• Annual: $-7,760/yr
• Cap rate: 3.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.97%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $77,812

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $278k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-647 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (41.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (48.6% below list).
• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $143k (48.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#559 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Thomas County (rural): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #97 of 174 in GA (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Thomas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Thomas County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $143k; list at $278k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.