107 Mossy Creek Way · Ochlocknee, GA 31773

$277,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 182 Days on market

Built 2006 0.89 ac lot $138/sqft · 20% below area Est $349k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 107 Mossy Creek Way—where comfort, space, and charm come together on a generous 0.89-acre lot. This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a thoughtfully designed layout featuring two separate living areas, perfect for entertaining or spreading out. Cozy up by the fireplace, or enjoy casual evenings in the second living space. The kitchen is a standout with a mix of solid surface and butcher block countertops, ample cabinet storage, and a practical layout that makes cooking and gathering a joy. A large laundry room with a utility sink adds convenience and function to your daily routine. The expansive primary suite is a true retreat, complete with a walk-in closet, dual vanities, a soaking tub, and a separate shower. Every inch of this home is designed for relaxed, everyday living—with plenty of space both inside and out. Tucked away at the end of the culdesac, this property offers the privacy of country living with easy access to nearby amenities. Come experience the comfort and charm for yourself!

Key facts

• 0.89 acre lot
• Large laundry room
• Fireplace

Tags

• 0.89 ACRE LOT
• TWO SEPARATE LIVING AREAS
• FIREPLACE
• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERTOPS
• AMPLE CABINET STORAGE
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $278k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-647 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (41.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (48.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (48.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#559 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Thomas County (rural): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #97 of 174 in GA (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Thomas County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Thomas County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($245k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $143k; list at $278k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,919 (48.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.97%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 16.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,284
• List price: $277,900
• Delta: -20.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110 Quail Ridge St	0.48mi	4/3.0	1,876 (-7%)	7mo	$348,925	$186	59
114 Quail Ridge St	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,934 (-4%)	15mo	$363,000	$188	55
475 Westshore Dr	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,238 (+11%)	5mo	$520,000	$232	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.7% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $67,893
• Equity at exit: $205,454

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $227,351
• Equity at exit: $402,528

Cash invested: $77,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31773

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 16.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,429 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,457
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,431/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-647

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,248

Max offer price $163,669

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,475
• Closing costs: $8,337
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $277,900 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $277,900 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $277,900 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $277,900 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $277,900 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $277,900 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $277,900 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $277,900 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $277,900 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $277,900 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $277,900 Active 169 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $277,900 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $277,900 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $277,900 Active 164 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $277,900 Active 163 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $277,900 Active 162 DOM
17. 2026-02-06
    price $277,900 1031-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1031 chars)

    Welcome to 107 Mossy Creek Way—where comfort, space, and charm come together on a generous 0.89-acre lot. This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a thoughtfully designed layout featuring two separate living areas, perfect for entertaining or spreading out. Cozy up by the fireplace, or enjoy casual evenings in the second living space. The kitchen is a standout with a mix of solid surface and butcher block countertops, ample cabinet storage, and a practical layout that makes cooking and gathering a joy. A large laundry room with a utility sink adds convenience and function to your daily routine. The expansive primary suite is a true retreat, complete with a walk-in closet, dual vanities, a soaking tub, and a separate shower. Every inch of this home is designed for relaxed, everyday living—with plenty of space both inside and out. Tucked away at the end of the culdesac, this property offers the privacy of country living with easy access to nearby amenities. Come experience the comfort and charm for yourself!

18. 2025-12-19
    listed $279,900 Active 1031-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1031 chars)

    Welcome to 107 Mossy Creek Way—where comfort, space, and charm come together on a generous 0.89-acre lot. This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a thoughtfully designed layout featuring two separate living areas, perfect for entertaining or spreading out. Cozy up by the fireplace, or enjoy casual evenings in the second living space. The kitchen is a standout with a mix of solid surface and butcher block countertops, ample cabinet storage, and a practical layout that makes cooking and gathering a joy. A large laundry room with a utility sink adds convenience and function to your daily routine. The expansive primary suite is a true retreat, complete with a walk-in closet, dual vanities, a soaking tub, and a separate shower. Every inch of this home is designed for relaxed, everyday living—with plenty of space both inside and out. Tucked away at the end of the culdesac, this property offers the privacy of country living with easy access to nearby amenities. Come experience the comfort and charm for yourself!

19. 2025-10-29
    price $279,900
20. 2025-09-20
    price $284,900
21. 2025-07-29
    price $289,900
22. 2025-07-16
    price $300,000
23. 2025-07-09
    price $314,900
24. 2018-05-18
    soldstatus $143,100
25. 2018-05-18
    soldstatus $143,100
26. 2018-03-21
    listed $143,100
27. 2018-03-21
    listed $143,100
28. 2009-12-18
    soldstatus $199,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,431 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,557 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$126/yr (+$10/mo · 5.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,150
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,567
• − Property taxes: −$2,431
• − Insurance: −$1,390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,372
• − Management: −$1,372
• − Depreciation: −$8,084
• Taxable loss: −$13,065
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,136
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thomas County
• NCES district ID: 1304890
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,341
• Composite: 24.95/100
• National rank: #7565
• State rank: #97 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ochlocknee

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #559
• US rank: #24362

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 4,040
• Population (ZIP): 4,040

Population outlook (Thomas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,303 people
• By 2030: 45,052 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 44,034 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 42,310 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 37,569 · -17.1%
• By 2100: 30,676 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thomas

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+21.8 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.70%
• Current HPI: 249.2072
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+39.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $277,900 TABRMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $279,900 TABRMLS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $279,900 TABRMLS
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $284,900 TABRMLS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $289,900 TABRMLS
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $300,000 TABRMLS
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $314,900 TABRMLS
• 2018-05-18 Sold (MLS) $143,100 MBOR
• 2018-05-18 Sold (MLS) $143,100 TABRMLS
• 2018-03-21 Listed $143,100 MBOR
• 2018-03-21 Listed $143,100 TABRMLS
• 2009-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $199,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,431 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.