2915 Raintree Ct

Stockton, CA 95219

$469,499D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,731 sqft · Built 1983 · SingleFamily · Pending · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,432/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,462
• Tax + insurance: −$432
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $-1,006/mo
• Annual: $-12,076/yr
• Cap rate: 3.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.19%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $131,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $469k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (37.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (48.2% below list).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($427k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $243k (48.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $50k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $47k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lincoln Unified (urban): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #284 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Claudia Landeen (math 19% / reading 30%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 525 students, 77% FRL); Sierra Middle (math 25% / reading 48%, grade F, #175 of 498 statewide, top 36%, 572 students, 73% FRL); Lincoln High (math 35% / reading 64%, grade D, #352 of 1,170 statewide, top 31%, 2,936 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 50% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 17617% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $400k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$81k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?