2915 Raintree Ct · Stockton, CA 95219

$469,499

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,731 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1983 6,804 sqft lot $271/sqft · 14% below area Est $547k · 14% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 2915 Raintree Ct in Stockton, a stunning home nestled in the highly sought-after Brookside West Community. This beautifully updated property features a bright open-concept layout, highlighted by stylish tile flooring throughout the main living areas and plush new carpet in each bedroom. The bathrooms have been refreshed with new tile floors, while the interior boasts fresh paint that creates a clean, modern feel. Step outside to a generously sized yardperfect for relaxing or entertaining on warm summer evenings. With so much to offer and priced to impress, this home is an incredible opportunity you won't want to misscome see it before it's gone!

Key facts

• Tile flooring
• Open-concept layout
• 6,804 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• TILE FLOORING
• GENEROUSLY SIZED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $469k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (37.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (48.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (48.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lincoln Unified (urban): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #284 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Claudia Landeen (math 19% / reading 30%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 525 students, 77% FRL); Sierra Middle (math 25% / reading 48%, grade F, #175 of 498 statewide, top 36%, 572 students, 73% FRL); Lincoln High (math 35% / reading 64%, grade D, #352 of 1,170 statewide, top 31%, 2,936 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 50% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $50k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $47k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$81k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($441k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 17617% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $400k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $243,151 (48.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.19%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 16.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $547,249
• List price: $469,499
• Delta: -14.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4140 Boulder Creek Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,731 (0%)	4mo	$510,000	$295	93
2903 Raintree Ct	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,943 (+12%)	0mo	$535,000	$275	78
3074 Carousel Cir	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,604 (-7%)	0mo	$490,000	$305	73
2755 Inman Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,700 (-2%)	2mo	$395,000	$232	71
2926 Snowbrook Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,940 (+12%)	1mo	$503,000	$259	66
4368 Boulder Creek Cir	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,950 (+13%)	2mo	$526,400	$270	65
2752 Calariva Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,499 (-13%)	2mo	$440,000	$294	58
3607 Crystal Tree Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,673 (-3%)	2mo	$685,000	$409	58
3469 W Euclid Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,684 (-3%)	3mo	$425,000	$252	56
2210 W River Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+7%)	3mo	$515,000	$279	55
3838 Annandale Ct	0.52mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,937 (+12%)	0mo	$625,000	$323	49
3634 Whispering Creek Cir	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,493 (-14%)	2mo	$490,000	$328	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $194,322
• Equity at exit: $422,962

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $628,439
• Equity at exit: $912,133

Cash invested: $131,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95219

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 16.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,432 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,462
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,838/yr
• Insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$511
• Net cashflow: $-1,006

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,705

Max offer price $291,731

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-741	-5% $-873	+0% $-1,006	+5% $-1,139	+10% $-1,272
Rent	-10% $-1,198	-5% $-1,102	+0% $-1,006	+5% $-910	+10% $-814
Rate	-1.0pp $-770	-0.5pp $-887	base $-1,006	+0.5pp $-1,128	+1.0pp $-1,252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $117,375
• Closing costs: $14,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2537 Plymouth Oaks Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,350	$1.57	46d	1	0.43mi
2660 Grand Canal Blvd Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5–2.0	1077	$1,972	$1.83	5d	2	0.45mi
4609 Da Vinci Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.5	1592	$2,000	$1.26	5d	1	0.53mi
3936 Dennis Ave Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	1583	$2,625	$1.66	5d	1	0.65mi
5301 Feather River Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	852	$2,575	$3.02	5d	6	0.84mi
5007 Innisbrook Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1723	$3,200	$1.86	46d	1	0.84mi
2029 Christina Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1365	$2,350	$1.72	46d	1	0.94mi
3915 Bridlewood Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,795	$1.99	23d	1	1.22mi
5834 Brush Creek Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,295	$2.09	5d	1	1.31mi
6019 Carolina Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1185	$2,300	$1.94	16d	1	1.49mi
6031 Carolina Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1245	$2,200	$1.77	5d	1	1.50mi
1540 Mosaic Way Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	795	$1,795	$2.26	5d	12	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $469,499 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $469,499 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $469,499 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $469,499 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $469,499 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $479,499 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $479,499 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $479,499 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $479,499 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $479,499 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $479,499 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $479,499 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $479,499 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $479,499 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $479,499 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $479,499 Active 69 DOM
17. 2025-04-30
    soldstatus $400,000
18. 2024-10-30
    historical $2,650
19. 2024-10-25
    listed $2,650
20. 2024-10-25
    historical $2,650
21. 2024-10-17
    historical $2,650
22. 2024-10-17
    listed $2,650
23. 2024-09-20
    listed $2,650
24. 2024-09-19
    historical $2,650
25. 2024-09-10
    listed $2,650
26. 1984-10-11
    soldstatus $28,000
27. 1983-01-04
    soldstatus $106,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,838 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$731/yr (+$61/mo · 25.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,178
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,299
• − Property taxes: −$2,838
• − Insurance: −$2,347
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,334
• − Management: −$2,334
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$13,658
• Taxable loss: −$21,029
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,047
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,029/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Unified
• NCES district ID: 0621690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $56,356
• Composite: 29.66/100
• National rank: #6465
• State rank: #284 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,713
• Household income: $112,268
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Hispanic / Latino 30% Asian 21% Two or more races 18% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.26%
• Current HPI: 1122.61
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+277.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $400,000 Public Records
• 2024-10-30 Rental Removed $2,650 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-10-25 Listed for Rent $2,650 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-10-25 Rental Removed $2,650 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-10-17 Rental Removed $2,650 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-10-17 Listed for Rent $2,650 SHOWMOJO
• 2024-09-20 Listed for Rent $2,650 RENTALBEAST
• 2024-09-19 Rental Removed $2,650 APPFOLIO
• 2024-09-10 Listed for Rent $2,650 APPFOLIO
• 1984-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 1983-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $106,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,838 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.