34 Randolph Dr

West Pensacola, FL 32506

$170,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,601/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$203
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $170/mo
• Annual: $2,045/yr
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.30%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (5.8% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (5.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#629 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Pensacola Elementary School (math 38% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 459 students, 85% FRL); Warrington Middle School (math 19% / reading 24%, grade F, #553 of 571 statewide, top 97%, 573 students, 87% FRL); Escambia High School (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,655 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 58% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Escambia average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 267 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $170k implies a 403% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.