10685 Blackburn Pl #9

San Buenaventura (Ventura), CA 93004

$189,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1967 · Manufactured · Active · 113 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,805/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$315
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $910/mo
• Annual: $10,916/yr
• Cap rate: 12.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.63%
• DSCR: 1.92
• 1% rule: 1.48%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $910 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $189k).
• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ventura Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #218 of 517 in CA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Academy of Technology & Leadership At Saticoy (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #719 of 1,571 statewide, top 48%, 422 students, 57% FRL); Balboa Middle (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #159 of 498 statewide, top 32%, 1,074 students, 48% FRL); Buena High (math 38% / reading 67%, grade C-, #289 of 1,170 statewide, top 25%, 1,710 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 50 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 2.4% in San Buenaventura (Ventura) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.