10685 Blackburn Pl #9 · San Buenaventura (Ventura), CA 93004

$189,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured · 113 Days on market

Built 1967 2,911 sqft lot $182/sqft · 29% below area Est $268k · 29% under ↓ 10% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated in one of Ventura's most desirable SENIOR COMMUNITIES, conveniently located near the entrance and clubhouse. NO land share, NO HOA, park approval needed for land lease. This 2+2 home has just over 1,000 sq ft of living space needing some TLC and personal touch. Primary bedroom at the rear with it's own bathroom with stand up shower. Second bathroom in hallway has a tub. Full kitchen with brand new wall oven, pantry and plenty of storage. Living room is spacious and has 2 large windows allowing natural light and warmth for comfortable relaxation. Dining area has beautiful built-in storage and display with mirror. Side patio with storage shed and private backyard with fruit trees allow for seating, entertaining guests, gardening and working on small projects. Carport fits 2 vehicles and contains another storage shed with power and is near water and sewer lines, making on-site laundry a possibility. Park amenities include a pool, clubhouse with kitchen, gym, billiard room, pantry, coin-op laundromat and car wash. Walking distance to a large park with basketball courts, playgrounds and walking path.

Key facts

• 2,911 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $910 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 2.4% in San Buenaventura (Ventura) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ventura Unified (urban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #218 of 517 in CA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Academy of Technology & Leadership At Saticoy (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #719 of 1,571 statewide, top 48%, 422 students, 57% FRL); Balboa Middle (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #159 of 498 statewide, top 32%, 1,074 students, 48% FRL); Buena High (math 38% / reading 67%, grade C-, #289 of 1,170 statewide, top 25%, 1,710 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 50 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,990 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.63%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,773
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -29.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10685 Blackburn Rd #63	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+6%)	11mo	$239,000	$217	81
10685 Blackburn Rd #22	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+4%)	20mo	$299,000	$277	76
10685 Blackburn Rd #87	0.00mi	2/1.0	960 (-8%)	11mo	$265,000	$276	74
10685 Blackburn Rd #40	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	19mo	$399,900	$347	66
11100 Telegraph Rd #28	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+4%)	12mo	$225,000	$208	59
1025 Cachuma Ave #98	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,140 (+10%)	4mo	$600,000	$526	46
85 Pansy Pl #85	0.71mi	2/2.0	964 (-7%)	14mo	$205,000	$213	43
209 Iris Way #209	0.71mi	2/2.0	960 (-8%)	22mo	$175,000	$182	35
65 Pansy Pl #65	0.72mi	2/2.0	960 (-8%)	22mo	$195,000	$203	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $19,135
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $59,673
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93004

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,805 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,835/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $910

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,653

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,040	-5% $975	+0% $910	+5% $844	+10% $779
Rent	-10% $688	-5% $799	+0% $910	+5% $1,020	+10% $1,131
Rate	-1.0pp $1,005	-0.5pp $958	base $910	+0.5pp $861	+1.0pp $811

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11023 Sausalito Rd Unit C-101 Ventura, CA	1.0	1.5	1175	$3,000	$2.55	16d	1	0.37mi
11023 Carlos St Unit D-307 Ventura, CA	2.0	2.0	854	$2,800	$3.28	45d	1	0.38mi
10940 Bajo Rd Ventura, CA	2.0	2.0	1064	$3,205	$3.01	3d	6	0.41mi
11114 Darling Rd Ventura, CA	2.0	2.0	1137	$3,046	$2.68	3d	3	0.57mi
1021 Scandia Ave Ventura, CA	1.0	1.0	586	$2,249	$3.83	3d	8	0.60mi
10829 Del Norte St Ventura, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$2,660	$2.96	3d	4	0.60mi
10965 Del Norte St Ventura, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,125	$3.04	3d	2	0.63mi
21 Poinsettia Gardens Dr Ventura, CA	2.0	2.0	1248	$2,850	$2.28	3d	1	0.74mi
11216 Snapdragon St Ventura, CA	2.0	2.0	1226	$3,095	$2.52	12d	1	0.75mi
10676 Veronica Ln Ventura, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	983	$3,208	$3.26	3d	13	0.76mi
675 Providence Ave Ventura, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	970	$2,559	$2.64	3d	7	0.80mi
1241 Petit Ave Ventura, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,140	$3.06	3d	6	1.27mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,000 Active 104 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 93 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 92 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    price $215,000 1121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1121 chars)

    Situated in one of Ventura's most desirable SENIOR COMMUNITIES, conveniently located near the entrance and clubhouse. NO land share, NO HOA, park approval needed for land lease. This 2+2 home has just over 1,000 sq ft of living space needing some TLC and personal touch. Primary bedroom at the rear with it's own bathroom with stand up shower. Second bathroom in hallway has a tub. Full kitchen with brand new wall oven, pantry and plenty of storage. Living room is spacious and has 2 large windows allowing natural light and warmth for comfortable relaxation. Dining area has beautiful built-in storage and display with mirror. Side patio with storage shed and private backyard with fruit trees allow for seating, entertaining guests, gardening and working on small projects. Carport fits 2 vehicles and contains another storage shed with power and is near water and sewer lines, making on-site laundry a possibility. Park amenities include a pool, clubhouse with kitchen, gym, billiard room, pantry, coin-op laundromat and car wash. Walking distance to a large park with basketball courts, playgrounds and walking path.

18. 2026-02-28
    listed $240,000 Active 1121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1121 chars)

    Situated in one of Ventura's most desirable SENIOR COMMUNITIES, conveniently located near the entrance and clubhouse. NO land share, NO HOA, park approval needed for land lease. This 2+2 home has just over 1,000 sq ft of living space needing some TLC and personal touch. Primary bedroom at the rear with it's own bathroom with stand up shower. Second bathroom in hallway has a tub. Full kitchen with brand new wall oven, pantry and plenty of storage. Living room is spacious and has 2 large windows allowing natural light and warmth for comfortable relaxation. Dining area has beautiful built-in storage and display with mirror. Side patio with storage shed and private backyard with fruit trees allow for seating, entertaining guests, gardening and working on small projects. Carport fits 2 vehicles and contains another storage shed with power and is near water and sewer lines, making on-site laundry a possibility. Park amenities include a pool, clubhouse with kitchen, gym, billiard room, pantry, coin-op laundromat and car wash. Walking distance to a large park with basketball courts, playgrounds and walking path.

19. 2026-02-27
    historical $240,000 1121-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1121 chars)

    Situated in one of Ventura's most desirable SENIOR COMMUNITIES, conveniently located near the entrance and clubhouse. NO land share, NO HOA, park approval needed for land lease. This 2+2 home has just over 1,000 sq ft of living space needing some TLC and personal touch. Primary bedroom at the rear with it's own bathroom with stand up shower. Second bathroom in hallway has a tub. Full kitchen with brand new wall oven, pantry and plenty of storage. Living room is spacious and has 2 large windows allowing natural light and warmth for comfortable relaxation. Dining area has beautiful built-in storage and display with mirror. Side patio with storage shed and private backyard with fruit trees allow for seating, entertaining guests, gardening and working on small projects. Carport fits 2 vehicles and contains another storage shed with power and is near water and sewer lines, making on-site laundry a possibility. Park amenities include a pool, clubhouse with kitchen, gym, billiard room, pantry, coin-op laundromat and car wash. Walking distance to a large park with basketball courts, playgrounds and walking path.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,658
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$2,835
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,693
• − Management: −$2,693
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $8,408
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,018
• After-tax cash flow: $8,898/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ventura Unified
• NCES district ID: 0640980
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,362
• Composite: 36.51/100
• National rank: #4646
• State rank: #218 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Buenaventura (Ventura)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Buenaventura (Ventura), CA
• County: Ventura County · 829,955 people
• City population: 83,837
• Metro: Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
• Population (ZIP): 30,698
• Household income: $114,012
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1116.0

Population outlook (Ventura County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 895,754 people
• By 2030: 912,134 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 931,454 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 934,609 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 924,899 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 864,712 · -3.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 40% Two or more races 20% Asian 5% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ventura

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 56.1% · R 41.0% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+21.1 2016: D+16.8 2012: D+5.3 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -905.14%
• Current HPI: 277.0452
• Rent YoY: ▬ -0.05%
• Metro: Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-10.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $215,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listed $240,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-27 Coming Soon $240,000 CRMLS