55921 Fern Rd

Astor, FL 32102

$204,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,384/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,070
• Tax + insurance: −$259
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $555/mo
• Annual: $6,660/yr
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.66%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $57,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $204k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $555 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $204k).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $198k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#613 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Umatilla Elementary School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade C+, #764 of 2,144 statewide, top 36%, 660 students, 55% FRL); Umatilla High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 861 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $159k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.