55921 Fern Rd · Astor, FL 32102

$204,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1997 0.34 ac lot Est $253k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully remodeled 3 bedroom, 2 bath split plan home. Updated kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, laminate floors throughout the whole home, freshly painted interior, and new appliances. Relax and enjoy the large porch on the front of the house or the screened in porch on the back of the house, plus there are 2 Carports (2 Car and 1 Car) and 2 sheds. Just a few minutes to the St. Johns River and the public boat ramp. NO HOA!

Key facts

• Eat-in dining area
• Built-in cabinetry
• Split floor plan

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN KITCHEN
• EAT-IN DINING AREA
• BREAKFAST BAR
• BUILT-IN CABINETRY
• NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $204k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $555 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $204k).
• Recommended offer: $198k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#613 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Umatilla Elementary School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade C+, #764 of 2,144 statewide, top 36%, 660 students, 55% FRL); Umatilla High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 861 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $159k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,880 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.66%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $253,344
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24045 Fox Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,394 (-4%)	6mo	$270,000	$194	84
23909 Deer Rd	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-14%)	11mo	$201,500	$161	54
55705 Keith St	0.52mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,636 (+12%)	10mo	$285,000	$174	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $48,812
• Equity at exit: $79,923

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.43×
• Total profit: $138,657
• Equity at exit: $114,677

Cash invested: $57,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32102

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,384 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,070
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,084/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $555

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,682

Max offer price $204,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $670	-5% $613	+0% $555	+5% $497	+10% $440
Rent	-10% $367	-5% $461	+0% $555	+5% $649	+10% $743
Rate	-1.0pp $658	-0.5pp $607	base $555	+0.5pp $502	+1.0pp $448

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,000
• Closing costs: $6,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
56314 Blue Creek Rd Astor, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,500	$2.00	19d	1	0.41mi
55624 Sam St Astor, FL	2.0	2.0	1792	$2,225	$1.24	12d	1	0.53mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $204,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-19
   price $204,000
4. 2026-02-22
   listed $209,000 Active
5. 2022-02-18
   soldstatus $159,000
6. 2022-02-07
   soldstatus $159,000 Closed 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   Beautifully remodeled 3 bedroom, 2 bath split plan home. Updated kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, laminate floors throughout the whole home, freshly painted interior, and new appliances. Relax and enjoy the large porch on the front of the house or the screened in porch on the back of the house, plus there are 2 Carports (2 Car and 1 Car) and 2 sheds. Just a few minutes to the St. Johns River and the public boat ramp. NO HOA!

7. 2022-01-15
   status Pending 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   Beautifully remodeled 3 bedroom, 2 bath split plan home. Updated kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, laminate floors throughout the whole home, freshly painted interior, and new appliances. Relax and enjoy the large porch on the front of the house or the screened in porch on the back of the house, plus there are 2 Carports (2 Car and 1 Car) and 2 sheds. Just a few minutes to the St. Johns River and the public boat ramp. NO HOA!

8. 2022-01-13
   listed $159,000 Active 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   Beautifully remodeled 3 bedroom, 2 bath split plan home. Updated kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, laminate floors throughout the whole home, freshly painted interior, and new appliances. Relax and enjoy the large porch on the front of the house or the screened in porch on the back of the house, plus there are 2 Carports (2 Car and 1 Car) and 2 sheds. Just a few minutes to the St. Johns River and the public boat ramp. NO HOA!

9. 2016-07-15
   soldstatus $59,000 Closed 752-char remark

   Show marketing remark (752 chars)

   Well maintained three bedroom two bath manufactured home. Large fenced corner lot with mature trees and nicely landscaped yard. Screened porch accessed by sliders from the living area. Separate storage building with power, nice workshop. Greenhouse and chicken coop to raise your own garden and eggs. Detached carport for covered parking. Corner lot with large green space across the street. Inside laundry room. Large open kitchen with eat in area, breakfast bar, built in cabinetry and lots of windows and skylights for a light bright interior. Split plan with 3 walk in closets. Master has large open bath with 2 sinks, garden soaker tub, walk in shower and closet. Nice home for retirement or family. Call to schedule your showing before it's gone.

10. 2016-07-15
    soldstatus $59,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    Well maintained three bedroom two bath manufactured home. Large fenced corner lot with mature trees and nicely landscaped yard. Screened porch accessed by sliders from the living area. Separate storage building with power, nice workshop. Greenhouse and chicken coop to raise your own garden and eggs. Detached carport for covered parking. Corner lot with large green space across the street. Inside laundry room. Large open kitchen with eat in area, breakfast bar, built in cabinetry and lots of windows and skylights for a light bright interior. Split plan with 3 walk in closets. Master has large open bath with 2 sinks, garden soaker tub, walk in shower and closet. Nice home for retirement or family. Call to schedule your showing before it's gone.

11. 2016-07-15
    soldstatus $59,000

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    Well maintained three bedroom two bath manufactured home. Large fenced corner lot with mature trees and nicely landscaped yard. Screened porch accessed by sliders from the living area. Separate storage building with power, nice workshop. Greenhouse and chicken coop to raise your own garden and eggs. Detached carport for covered parking. Corner lot with large green space across the street. Inside laundry room. Large open kitchen with eat in area, breakfast bar, built in cabinetry and lots of windows and skylights for a light bright interior. Split plan with 3 walk in closets. Master has large open bath with 2 sinks, garden soaker tub, walk in shower and closet. Nice home for retirement or family. Call to schedule your showing before it's gone.

12. 2016-06-30
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    Well maintained three bedroom two bath manufactured home. Large fenced corner lot with mature trees and nicely landscaped yard. Screened porch accessed by sliders from the living area. Separate storage building with power, nice workshop. Greenhouse and chicken coop to raise your own garden and eggs. Detached carport for covered parking. Corner lot with large green space across the street. Inside laundry room. Large open kitchen with eat in area, breakfast bar, built in cabinetry and lots of windows and skylights for a light bright interior. Split plan with 3 walk in closets. Master has large open bath with 2 sinks, garden soaker tub, walk in shower and closet. Nice home for retirement or family. Call to schedule your showing before it's gone.

13. 2016-06-30
    historical Contingent 752-char remark

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    Well maintained three bedroom two bath manufactured home. Large fenced corner lot with mature trees and nicely landscaped yard. Screened porch accessed by sliders from the living area. Separate storage building with power, nice workshop. Greenhouse and chicken coop to raise your own garden and eggs. Detached carport for covered parking. Corner lot with large green space across the street. Inside laundry room. Large open kitchen with eat in area, breakfast bar, built in cabinetry and lots of windows and skylights for a light bright interior. Split plan with 3 walk in closets. Master has large open bath with 2 sinks, garden soaker tub, walk in shower and closet. Nice home for retirement or family. Call to schedule your showing before it's gone.

14. 2016-06-26
    listed $62,000 Active 752-char remark

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    Well maintained three bedroom two bath manufactured home. Large fenced corner lot with mature trees and nicely landscaped yard. Screened porch accessed by sliders from the living area. Separate storage building with power, nice workshop. Greenhouse and chicken coop to raise your own garden and eggs. Detached carport for covered parking. Corner lot with large green space across the street. Inside laundry room. Large open kitchen with eat in area, breakfast bar, built in cabinetry and lots of windows and skylights for a light bright interior. Split plan with 3 walk in closets. Master has large open bath with 2 sinks, garden soaker tub, walk in shower and closet. Nice home for retirement or family. Call to schedule your showing before it's gone.

15. 2016-06-26
    listed $62,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (752 chars)

    Well maintained three bedroom two bath manufactured home. Large fenced corner lot with mature trees and nicely landscaped yard. Screened porch accessed by sliders from the living area. Separate storage building with power, nice workshop. Greenhouse and chicken coop to raise your own garden and eggs. Detached carport for covered parking. Corner lot with large green space across the street. Inside laundry room. Large open kitchen with eat in area, breakfast bar, built in cabinetry and lots of windows and skylights for a light bright interior. Split plan with 3 walk in closets. Master has large open bath with 2 sinks, garden soaker tub, walk in shower and closet. Nice home for retirement or family. Call to schedule your showing before it's gone.

16. 2009-06-24
    soldstatus $75,000
17. 2008-07-16
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,084 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,084 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,609
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,427
• − Property taxes: −$2,084
• − Insurance: −$1,020
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,289
• − Management: −$2,289
• − Depreciation: −$5,935
• Taxable income: $3,566
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$856
• After-tax cash flow: $5,804/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Astor

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #613
• US rank: #11822

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Astor, FL
• Population (ZIP): 2,401

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Portuguese 8% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• Current HPI: 232.7974
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1940.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $204,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-22 Listed $209,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $159,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-07 Sold (MLS) $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-13 Listed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
• 2016-07-15 Sold (MLS) $59,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-15 Sold (MLS) $59,000 Daytona MLS
• 2016-06-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-30 Contingent — Daytona MLS
• 2016-06-26 Listed $62,000 Daytona MLS
• 2016-06-26 Listed $62,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2008-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,084 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.