17811 Lincoln Dr

Roseville, MI 48066

$184,999F

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,312 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,513/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$602
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-377/mo
• Annual: $-4,521/yr
• Cap rate: 3.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.73%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-377 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (32.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (18.2% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $126k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#258 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, employment D, crime F.
• Roseville Community Schools (suburban): math 11% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #483 of 540 in MI (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Roseville High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #622 of 713 statewide, top 88%, 1,216 students, 70% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 269 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $136k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 5.9% in Roseville — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.