17811 Lincoln Dr · Roseville, MI 48066

$184,999

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,312 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1952 5,227 sqft lot Est $163k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +1.3/15.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-maintained brick bungalow located at 17811 Lincoln Dr. This spacious two-story home is an excellent starter home featuring a functional layout with hardwood flooring throughout much of the main level, fresh paint, updated lighting fixtures, and a finished basement offering additional living and entertaining space. The upper level features a large open layout with brand-new carpeting and built-in storage, ideal for a primary suite, flex space, or home office. The main floor includes bright bedrooms, a full bathroom with classic tile finishes, and abundant natural light throughout. Additional updates include a new water heater installed in 2025 and a brand-new roof currently being installed for added peace of mind and will be completed before 5-30-2026 Outside, enjoy the covered front porch, spacious yard, long driveway, and detached 2-car garage with ample storage and workspace potential. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major expressways with quick access to Downtown Detroit and surrounding Metro Detroit communities. Seller is a licensed real estate agent.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Brick bungalow
• Large open layout

Tags

• BRICK BUNGALOW
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• LARGE OPEN LAYOUT
• BUILT-IN STORAGE
• FULL BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Ground-level entry
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Paved driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range; Free-standing refrigerator; Range hood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central air
• Interior features: Finished basement; Range hood
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-377 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (32.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 5.9% in Roseville — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#258 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, employment D, crime F.
• Roseville Community Schools (suburban): math 11% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #483 of 540 in MI (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Roseville High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #622 of 713 statewide, top 88%, 1,216 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 269 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $136k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $125,891 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.73%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,688
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28889 Hillview St	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,288 (-2%)	2mo	$117,000	$91	84
29295 Hillview St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,285 (-2%)	4mo	$140,000	$109	68
29570 Rosemont St	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,301 (-1%)	1mo	$161,500	$124	68
17891 Birmingham St St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,399 (+7%)	2mo	$169,900	$121	67
28222 Bohn St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+7%)	4mo	$200,000	$142	63
28076 Schram St	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,400 (+7%)	3mo	$245,000	$175	54
29450 Ruthdale St	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,424 (+8%)	0mo	$222,600	$156	47
27375 Edward St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,476 (+12%)	1mo	$106,100	$72	47
17751 Pasadena St	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,440 (+10%)	4mo	$300,000	$208	42
28059 Schram St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,119 (-15%)	3mo	$135,000	$121	40
29920 Pinehurst St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,128 (-14%)	2mo	$159,000	$141	39
29820 Quinkert St	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,492 (+14%)	2mo	$136,000	$91	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-57,641
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -73.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.84×
• Total profit: $-95,343
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48066

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,513 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$525 /mo · $6,295/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,990

Max offer price $125,891

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-272	-5% $-324	+0% $-377	+5% $-429	+10% $-481
Rent	-10% $-496	-5% $-436	+0% $-377	+5% $-317	+10% $-257
Rate	-1.0pp $-284	-0.5pp $-330	base $-377	+0.5pp $-425	+1.0pp $-473

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28320 Hillview St Roseville, MI	3.0	1.0	1224	$1,500	$1.23	1d	1	0.09mi
28744 Maple St Roseville, MI	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,295	$1.23	45d	1	0.19mi
18410 Tranquil St Roseville, MI	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,800	$1.58	45d	1	0.36mi
18410 Tranquil St Roseville, MI	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,800	$1.58	16d	1	0.36mi
17405 Ivanhoe St Roseville, MI	3.0	1.0	969	$1,600	$1.65	45d	1	0.39mi
17392 Tennyson St Roseville, MI	3.0	1.0	900	$1,649	$1.83	4d	1	0.46mi
28232 Floral St Unit 1032343P Roseville, MI	3.0	1.0	1496	$6,419	$4.29	0d	1	0.57mi
18635 Meier St Unit : Back Roseville, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	26d	1	0.63mi
16651 Twelve Mile Rd Roseville, MI	2.0–3.0	1.5	957	$1,720	$1.80	0d	1	0.79mi
27881 O Neil Roseville, MI	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,300	$1.00	0d	1	0.88mi
27881 O Neil Roseville, MI	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,300	$1.00	26d	1	0.88mi
16944 E 11 Mile Rd Unit C2 Roseville, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	26d	1	0.91mi
19236 Florida St Roseville, MI	2.0	1.0	1160	$1,700	$1.47	0d	1	0.92mi
16840 E Eleven Mile Rd Unit 104 Roseville, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	45d	1	0.94mi
16840 E Eleven Mile Rd Roseville, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	23d	3	0.94mi
16840 E Eleven Mile Rd Roseville, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	26d	3	0.94mi
16840 E 11 Mile Rd Unit 109 Roseville, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	45d	1	0.94mi
16840 E Eleven Mile Rd Unit 103 Roseville, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	45d	1	0.94mi
27547 O Neil Roseville, MI	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	6d	1	0.95mi
27067 Lawnwood St Roseville, MI	3.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	45d	1	0.99mi
30512 Oakridge Manor Dr Roseville, MI	2.0	1.5	1002	$1,350	$1.35	26d	1	1.06mi
26251 Pinehurst St Unit 251d Roseville, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	45d	1	1.10mi
26221 Pinehurst St Roseville, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	1d	1	1.11mi
30583 Hidden Pines Ln Roseville, MI	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	18d	1	1.17mi
30773 Hidden Pines Ln Roseville, MI	2.0	2.0	1142	$1,500	$1.31	45d	1	1.19mi
30657 Hidden Pines Ln Roseville, MI	2.0	2.0	1174	$1,650	$1.41	21d	1	1.19mi
30761 Hidden Pines Ln Roseville, MI	2.0	1.0	877	$1,295	$1.48	0d	1	1.19mi
27241 Woodmont St Roseville, MI	3.0	1.0	924	$1,550	$1.68	3d	1	1.19mi
17134 E Thirteen Mile Rd Roseville, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$1,269	$1.54	3d	16	1.24mi
26511 Grandmont St Roseville, MI	3.0	1.0	960	$1,495	$1.56	6d	1	1.40mi
19040 E 13 Mile Rd Roseville, MI	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,550	$1.54	0d	1	1.40mi
19054 E 13 Mile Rd Roseville, MI	3.0	1.0	1066	$1,600	$1.50	0d	1	1.41mi
26536 Kathy St Roseville, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,499	$1.50	26d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $184,999 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $184,999 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-05-26
   listed $184,999 Active
4. 2026-05-25
   listed $184,999 Active 1117-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1117 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained brick bungalow located at 17811 Lincoln Dr. This spacious two-story home is an excellent starter home featuring a functional layout with hardwood flooring throughout much of the main level, fresh paint, updated lighting fixtures, and a finished basement offering additional living and entertaining space. The upper level features a large open layout with brand-new carpeting and built-in storage, ideal for a primary suite, flex space, or home office. The main floor includes bright bedrooms, a full bathroom with classic tile finishes, and abundant natural light throughout. Additional updates include a new water heater installed in 2025 and a brand-new roof currently being installed for added peace of mind and will be completed before 5-30-2026 Outside, enjoy the covered front porch, spacious yard, long driveway, and detached 2-car garage with ample storage and workspace potential. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major expressways with quick access to Downtown Detroit and surrounding Metro Detroit communities. Seller is a licensed real estate agent.

5. 2005-12-28
   soldstatus $136,000 407-char remark

   Show marketing remark (407 chars)

   This full brick home is truly outstanding. Lg updated kitchen w/ oak cab, island w/ dshwr, appliances stay & a lg eating area. Nicely decorated w/ beautiful HW flrs, spacious knotty pine finished master bdrm w/ 3-closets. New furn & AC in 04. Copper plmg, vinyl windows, roof only 9-yrs old. Mercury light on oversized garage w/ opener. Tile tub surround in nice bath. Duct work cleaned in 2002.

6. 2005-07-05
   soldstatus $136,000
7. 2005-06-20
   soldstatus $136,000
8. 2005-04-25
   historical
9. 2005-03-08
   listed $136,900 407-char remark

   Show marketing remark (407 chars)

   This full brick home is truly outstanding. Lg updated kitchen w/ oak cab, island w/ dshwr, appliances stay & a lg eating area. Nicely decorated w/ beautiful HW flrs, spacious knotty pine finished master bdrm w/ 3-closets. New furn & AC in 04. Copper plmg, vinyl windows, roof only 9-yrs old. Mercury light on oversized garage w/ opener. Tile tub surround in nice bath. Duct work cleaned in 2002.

10. 2005-02-08
    listed $136,900
11. 2005-02-01
    historical
12. 2004-11-02
    listed $145,000
13. 1991-01-22
    soldstatus $61,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,295 · $525/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,295 · $525/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$6,295
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,452
• − Management: −$1,452
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$7,716
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,852
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,669/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roseville Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2630210
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,590
• Composite: 14.98/100
• National rank: #9363
• State rank: #483 of 540 in MI

Livability — Roseville

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #6400

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roseville, MI
• County: Macomb County · 638,552 people
• City population: 47,123
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 47,123
• Household income: $62,182
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1712.0

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 23% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.95%
• Current HPI: 217.4171
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.39%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+203.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $184,999 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-25 Listed $184,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-12-28 Sold (MLS) $136,000 REALCOMP
• 2005-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $136,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-20 Sold (MLS) $136,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-04-25 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-03-08 Listed $136,900 REALCOMP
• 2005-02-08 Listed $136,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-02-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-11-02 Listed $145,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1991-01-22 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,295 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.