5 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,730 sqft ·
Built 1966
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 204 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,518/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$532
Tax + insurance
−$291
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$319
Net cashflow
$376/mo
Annual
$4,510/yr
Cap rate
10.74%
Cash-on-cash
15.87%
DSCR
1.71
1% rule
1.50%
Cash to close
$28,420
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $102k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $102k).
It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $89k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $702 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,178 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
New Boston ISD (town): math 34% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #518 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Crestview El (math 30% / reading 29%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 584 students, 82% FRL); New Boston Middle (math 43% / reading 43%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 249 students, 81% FRL); New Boston H S (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 321 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 54% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Bowie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-FYJH029HBFM811
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29