11684 Dogwood Dr

Lost Bridge Village, AR 72732

$449,000B+

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,400 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,184/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax + insurance: −$545
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,089
• Net cashflow: $1,196/mo
• Annual: $14,348/yr
• Cap rate: 9.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.41%
• DSCR: 1.51
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $125,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $449k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $449k).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $409k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#348 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Rogers School District (urban): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #31 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $290k; list at $449k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $126k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.6% in Lost Bridge Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.