151 Illinois St NE

Camdenton, MO 65020

$279,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,108 sqft · Built 1990 · Other · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,854/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-175/mo
• Annual: $-2,096/yr
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.68%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $78,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (33.7% below list).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#186 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Camdenton R-III (rural): math 46% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #68 of 324 in MO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; 272 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Camden County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 1.7% in Camdenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.