512 E Willow Ln

Princeton, TX 75407

$229,999D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,530 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,014/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$399
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-14/mo
• Annual: $-166/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.26%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-166/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (12.4% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $201k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Godwin El (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 587 students, 65% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 49% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Princeton ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1409 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.