512 E Willow Ln · Princeton, TX 75407

$229,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,530 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1975 0.39 ac lot Est $298k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

OCCUPIED Auction Property. Single Story home on an interior lot with trees, covered porch, and a spacious backyard. Princeton ISD. BUYER TO VERIFY SCHOOLS, MSMTS, TAXES, HOA, ETC. NO REPRESENTATION TO VALIDITY OF INFO IS MADE. BUYER TO VERIFY ALL INFORMATION WHEREIN. HOME SOLD AS IS WHERE IS. Property is at auction, please see private remarks for further details.

Key facts

• Large living area
• Attached garage
• Spacious lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• LARGE LIVING AREA
• EXISTING HARDWOOD FLOORING
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN LAYOUT
• ENCLOSED PATIO
• ATTACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing available for 1031 exchange or cash
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (approx. 20' x 21'); 2 covered parking spaces; Driveway
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 1975; One story
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Interior lot; Covered porch(es)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (11 x 11); Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (13 x 13); Bedroom (11 x 12); Bedroom (11 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: One-level floor plan; 7 total rooms; Living room with fireplace; Covered porch(es)
• Laundry & utility: Utility room (7 x 7)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-166/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Godwin El (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 587 students, 65% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 49% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Princeton ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1409 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,376 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.26%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $298,350
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1118 Windermere Way	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,627 (+6%)	8mo	$359,900	$221	68
1117 Windermere Way	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,399 (-9%)	5mo	$333,900	$239	68
1106 Windermere Way	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,627 (+6%)	8mo	$349,900	$215	66
1211 Longneck Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,652 (+8%)	1mo	$375,000	$227	65
1025 Weiss Ave	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-9%)	8mo	$250,000	$179	65
1105 Dye Blvd	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,627 (+6%)	6mo	$339,900	$209	64
1001 E College St	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,429 (-7%)	6mo	$180,000	$126	63
409 Kingsbury Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,606 (+5%)	2mo	$308,990	$192	56
215 N 2nd St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-10%)	1mo	$245,000	$178	50
1018 Colgate Cir	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,688 (+10%)	2mo	$305,000	$181	49
904 Colgate Cir	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,741 (+14%)	0mo	$340,000	$195	48
1007 Colgate Cir	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,741 (+14%)	3mo	$315,000	$181	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-44,015
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-62,110
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1409
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,014 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$303 /mo · $3,633/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,031

Max offer price $227,549

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $116	-5% $51	+0% $-14	+5% $-79	+10% $-144
Rent	-10% $-173	-5% $-93	+0% $-14	+5% $66	+10% $145
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $45	base $-14	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-134

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
604 Princeton Hts Princeton, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1882	$2,045	$1.09	0d	1	0.08mi
804 Princeton Hts Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	2232	$2,225	$1.00	6d	1	0.16mi
907 Princeton Hts Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1627	$1,995	$1.23	25d	1	0.22mi
1008 N 4th St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,761	$1.41	0d	1	0.22mi
704 E College St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1710	$1,575	$0.92	44d	1	0.23mi
912 N 4th St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,149	$1.48	0d	1	0.25mi
1001 Weiss Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,595	$1.32	44d	1	0.31mi
1106 Princeton Hts Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,795	$1.28	3d	1	0.31mi
806 Parkplace Rdg Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1600	$1,500	$0.94	20d	1	0.32mi
812 Parkplace Rdg Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1514	$1,575	$1.04	14d	1	0.33mi
1605 Fox DR Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1435	$2,208	$1.54	0d	11	0.33mi
1104 Witherspoon Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	1845	$2,200	$1.19	44d	1	0.34mi
837 E College St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1575	$1,500	$0.95	44d	1	0.35mi
819 Parkplace Rdg Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1669	$1,700	$1.02	44d	1	0.36mi
1414 Windermere Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1635	$1,945	$1.19	0d	1	0.37mi
1210 Bullock Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	3.0	1627	$1,850	$1.14	44d	1	0.39mi
1211 Princeton Hts Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,770	$1.26	18d	1	0.39mi
1211 Princeton Hts Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,995	$1.42	44d	1	0.39mi
1206 Dye Blvd Princeton, TX	4.0	6.0	1845	$2,199	$1.19	44d	1	0.39mi
1106 Parkway Trl Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1404	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	0.40mi
1421 Butler Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	2225	$1,999	$0.90	25d	1	0.40mi
1215 Bullock Dr Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	1836	$2,095	$1.14	44d	1	0.41mi
1609 Washington St Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2182	$2,150	$0.99	0d	1	0.44mi
600 Jefferson Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	20d	1	0.46mi
1105 Butler Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,749	$1.25	18d	1	0.46mi
1710 Washington St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$1,770	$1.23	3d	1	0.52mi
514 Virginia Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1980	$2,200	$1.11	5d	1	0.53mi
512 Virginia Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	2133	$2,150	$1.01	25d	1	0.53mi
508 Virginia Way Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,200	$1.16	14d	1	0.54mi
1802 Washington St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$1,950	$1.02	25d	1	0.55mi
1805 Washington St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$1,775	$1.24	44d	1	0.55mi
625 Delaware Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$2,000	$1.04	4d	1	0.55mi
1709 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,695	$1.04	44d	1	0.55mi
1702 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2121	$1,995	$0.94	8d	1	0.55mi
617 Delaware Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,749	$1.24	6d	1	0.56mi
613 Delaware Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1920	$1,950	$1.02	25d	1	0.56mi
1708 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1826	$1,850	$1.01	5d	1	0.57mi
603 Delaware Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,897	$1.16	6d	1	0.58mi
622 Delaware Ave Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,850	$1.13	23d	1	0.58mi
1809 Chapel Hill Rd Princeton, TX	4.0	2.5	2121	$2,100	$0.99	5d	1	0.60mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,999 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,999 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,999 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,999 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,999 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,999 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $229,999 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,633 · $303/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$576/yr (+$48/mo · 15.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,165
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,633
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,933
• − Management: −$1,933
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$4,059
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$974
• After-tax cash flow: $808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Princeton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #969
• US rank: #17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Princeton, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 69,325
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+360.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $229,999 NTREIS
• 2016-02-22 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-01-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2015-12-21 Listed $84,856 NTREIS
• 2010-08-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-04-09 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2010-03-09 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2010-02-05 Listed $49,900 NTREIS
• 2004-02-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,633 · -10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.