4-74 48th Ave Unit 35F

New York, NY 11109

$649,000F

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 863 sqft · Built 1998 · Condo · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,272/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,403
• Tax + insurance: −$1,508
• HOA: −$2,709
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,107
• Net cashflow: $-3,456/mo
• Annual: $-41,468/yr
• Cap rate: 0.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -20.00%
• DSCR: 0.11
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $181,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $649k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-41k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $541k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $527k (18.8% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($610k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $527k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 51% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 15 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 0.7% vs local median 2.6% in New York — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($205k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?