141 Northwoods Cabin

Cougar, WA 98616

$170,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 856 sqft · Built 1979 · Other · Active · 154 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,527/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$95
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $67/mo
• Annual: $808/yr
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.70%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($808/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (10.2% below list).
• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Woodland School District (town): math 48% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #94 of 291 in WA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 348 units permitted in Cowlitz County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cowlitz County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $170k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.6% in Cougar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.