141 Northwoods Cabin · Cougar, WA 98616

$170,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 856 sqft · Other public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1979 $199/sqft · at area comps Est $169k · at est. $95/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated 3 bedroom, 1 bath off-grid cabin located in the peaceful Northwoods Community. This property borders public land for added privacy and a serene wooded setting. This cabin is supported by a premium off-grid power system and a 500-gallon propane tank for reliable year-round living. Recent upgrades include new windows throughout the home, refinished stairs, and a new wood shed. Outdoor living is enhanced with a large covered front porch and spacious back deck, ideal for entertaining or relaxing. Community amenities include private Swift Reservoir access with docks, playground, fire pit, and more. Turnkey cabin with modern updates and excellent recreational access. Schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Off-grid cabin
• Refinished stairs
• Borders public land

Tags

• OFF-GRID CABIN
• BORDERS PUBLIC LAND
• PREMIUM OFF-GRID POWER SYSTEM
• 500-GALLON PROPANE TANK
• NEW WINDOWS
• REFINISHED STAIRS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($808/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.6% in Cougar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Woodland School District (town): math 48% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #94 of 291 in WA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 348 units permitted in Cowlitz County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Cowlitz County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $170k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $149,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.70%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,003
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: 0.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $29,795
• Equity at exit: $81,785

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $94,002
• Equity at exit: $130,364

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98616

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,527 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $978/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$95
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,442

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $95 · $1,140/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $170,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $170,000 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 139 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 138 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 137 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 136 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $170,000 Active 135 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $180,000 Active 134 DOM
18. 2026-03-04
    price $180,000

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Beautifully updated 3 bedroom, 1 bath off-grid cabin located in the peaceful Northwoods Community. This property borders public land for added privacy and a serene wooded setting. This cabin is supported by a premium off-grid power system and a 500-gallon propane tank for reliable year-round living. Recent upgrades include new windows throughout the home, refinished stairs, and a new wood shed. Outdoor living is enhanced with a large covered front porch and spacious back deck, ideal for entertaining or relaxing. Community amenities include private Swift Reservoir access with docks, playground, fire pit, and more. Turnkey cabin with modern updates and excellent recreational access. Schedule your tour today!

19. 2026-03-04
    price $180,000 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Beautifully updated 3 bedroom, 1 bath off-grid cabin located in the peaceful Northwoods Community. This property borders public land for added privacy and a serene wooded setting. This cabin is supported by a premium off-grid power system and a 500-gallon propane tank for reliable year-round living. Recent upgrades include new windows throughout the home, refinished stairs, and a new wood shed. Outdoor living is enhanced with a large covered front porch and spacious back deck, ideal for entertaining or relaxing. Community amenities include private Swift Reservoir access with docks, playground, fire pit, and more. Turnkey cabin with modern updates and excellent recreational access. Schedule your tour today!

20. 2026-03-04
    price $18,000

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Beautifully updated 3 bedroom, 1 bath off-grid cabin located in the peaceful Northwoods Community. This property borders public land for added privacy and a serene wooded setting. This cabin is supported by a premium off-grid power system and a 500-gallon propane tank for reliable year-round living. Recent upgrades include new windows throughout the home, refinished stairs, and a new wood shed. Outdoor living is enhanced with a large covered front porch and spacious back deck, ideal for entertaining or relaxing. Community amenities include private Swift Reservoir access with docks, playground, fire pit, and more. Turnkey cabin with modern updates and excellent recreational access. Schedule your tour today!

21. 2026-01-16
    listed $190,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Beautifully updated 3 bedroom, 1 bath off-grid cabin located in the peaceful Northwoods Community. This property borders public land for added privacy and a serene wooded setting. This cabin is supported by a premium off-grid power system and a 500-gallon propane tank for reliable year-round living. Recent upgrades include new windows throughout the home, refinished stairs, and a new wood shed. Outdoor living is enhanced with a large covered front porch and spacious back deck, ideal for entertaining or relaxing. Community amenities include private Swift Reservoir access with docks, playground, fire pit, and more. Turnkey cabin with modern updates and excellent recreational access. Schedule your tour today!

22. 2026-01-16
    listed $190,000 Active 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Beautifully updated 3 bedroom, 1 bath off-grid cabin located in the peaceful Northwoods Community. This property borders public land for added privacy and a serene wooded setting. This cabin is supported by a premium off-grid power system and a 500-gallon propane tank for reliable year-round living. Recent upgrades include new windows throughout the home, refinished stairs, and a new wood shed. Outdoor living is enhanced with a large covered front porch and spacious back deck, ideal for entertaining or relaxing. Community amenities include private Swift Reservoir access with docks, playground, fire pit, and more. Turnkey cabin with modern updates and excellent recreational access. Schedule your tour today!

23. 2018-09-27
    soldstatus $79,900 Sold 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    Furnished cabin that has been recently remodeled. All new, plumbing, propane lines, hot water heater, sub floor, laminate flooring, paneling, top of the line kitchen appliances made for off grid. Full size stove. New wood stove and chimney, sliding glass doors. Walk to Swift Reservoir for swimming and boating. Amazing vacation cabin only 1.5 hours away from Vancouver.

24. 2018-09-27
    soldstatus $954,880

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    Furnished cabin that has been recently remodeled. All new, plumbing, propane lines, hot water heater, sub floor, laminate flooring, paneling, top of the line kitchen appliances made for off grid. Full size stove. New wood stove and chimney, sliding glass doors. Walk to Swift Reservoir for swimming and boating. Amazing vacation cabin only 1.5 hours away from Vancouver.

25. 2018-09-04
    status Pending 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    Furnished cabin that has been recently remodeled. All new, plumbing, propane lines, hot water heater, sub floor, laminate flooring, paneling, top of the line kitchen appliances made for off grid. Full size stove. New wood stove and chimney, sliding glass doors. Walk to Swift Reservoir for swimming and boating. Amazing vacation cabin only 1.5 hours away from Vancouver.

26. 2018-08-21
    price $79,900 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    Furnished cabin that has been recently remodeled. All new, plumbing, propane lines, hot water heater, sub floor, laminate flooring, paneling, top of the line kitchen appliances made for off grid. Full size stove. New wood stove and chimney, sliding glass doors. Walk to Swift Reservoir for swimming and boating. Amazing vacation cabin only 1.5 hours away from Vancouver.

27. 2018-06-20
    price $89,900 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    Furnished cabin that has been recently remodeled. All new, plumbing, propane lines, hot water heater, sub floor, laminate flooring, paneling, top of the line kitchen appliances made for off grid. Full size stove. New wood stove and chimney, sliding glass doors. Walk to Swift Reservoir for swimming and boating. Amazing vacation cabin only 1.5 hours away from Vancouver.

28. 2018-03-30
    listed $112,000 Active 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    Furnished cabin that has been recently remodeled. All new, plumbing, propane lines, hot water heater, sub floor, laminate flooring, paneling, top of the line kitchen appliances made for off grid. Full size stove. New wood stove and chimney, sliding glass doors. Walk to Swift Reservoir for swimming and boating. Amazing vacation cabin only 1.5 hours away from Vancouver.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $978 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,666 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: +$688/yr (+$57/mo · 70.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,322
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$978
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,466
• − Management: −$1,466
• − HOA: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$2,046
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$491
• After-tax cash flow: $1,299/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Woodland School District
• NCES district ID: 5310050
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $60,973
• Composite: 49.77/100
• National rank: #4219
• State rank: #94 of 291 in WA

Livability — Cougar

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 81

Population outlook (Cowlitz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,780 people
• By 2030: 103,980 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 100,769 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 96,685 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 86,454 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 74,052 · -29.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Two or more races 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cowlitz

• 2024 margin: R (+19.9) · D 38.7% · R 58.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: 11.2pp · 2024: -19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+17.4 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.55%
• Current HPI: 235.7646
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+60.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $180,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $180,000 RMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $18,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Listed $190,000 RMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $190,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $954,880 Public Records
• 2018-09-27 Sold (MLS) $79,900 RMLS
• 2018-09-04 Pending — RMLS
• 2018-08-21 Price Changed $79,900 RMLS
• 2018-06-20 Price Changed $89,900 RMLS
• 2018-03-30 Listed $112,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $978 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.