11280 Rust Rd

Hillman, MI 49746

$179,900D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 223 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,223/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$306
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $-283/mo
• Annual: $-3,396/yr
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.74%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-283 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (27.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (32.0% below list).
• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#575 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hillman Community Schools (rural): math 22% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #361 of 540 in MI (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hillman Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,035 of 1,397 statewide, top 77%, 187 students, 61% FRL); Hillman Community Jrsr High School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #334 of 713 statewide, top 51%, 228 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP.
• Montmorency County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.