1500 Bay Area Blvd #278

Houston, TX 77058

$79,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 970 sqft · Built 1978 · Condo · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,209/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax + insurance: −$230
• HOA: −$455
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-144/mo
• Annual: $-1,731/yr
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.83%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 1.53%
• Cash to close: $22,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $79k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $54k (32.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $54k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $962 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; HOA is 38% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $79k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.