1500 Bay Area Blvd #278 · Houston, TX 77058

$79,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 970 sqft · Condo public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1978 $81/sqft · 17% below area Est $95k · 17% under $455/mo HOA · 38% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

All laminate throughout except for bathrooms.

Key facts

• $455 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1978

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $54k (32.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $962 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $79k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; HOA is 38% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,518 (32.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
10. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
11. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
12. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
13. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
14. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.83%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $94,624
• List price: $79,000
• Delta: -16.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.22% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-16,852
• Equity at exit: $18,246

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-24,624
• Equity at exit: $18,466

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77058

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,209 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,367/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$455
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,392

Max offer price $53,518

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-100	-5% $-122	+0% $-144	+5% $-167	+10% $-189
Rent	-10% $-240	-5% $-192	+0% $-144	+5% $-96	+10% $-49
Rate	-1.0pp $-104	-0.5pp $-124	base $-144	+0.5pp $-165	+1.0pp $-186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1500 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	44d	1	0.02mi
1500 Bay Area Blvd Unit R195 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	25d	1	0.04mi
1424 Gemini St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	730	$1,254	$1.72	19d	1	0.13mi
1245 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,062	$1.25	25d	1	0.14mi
1620 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	685	$1,350	$1.97	3d	21	0.21mi
1306 Gemini St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	660	$1,180	$1.79	44d	1	0.22mi
1707 Gemini St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	652	$940	$1.44	19d	1	0.25mi
1707 Gemini St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	946	$1,109	$1.17	44d	1	0.25mi
1707 Gemini St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	652	$940	$1.44	21d	1	0.25mi
1239 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	670	$955	$1.43	13d	1	0.25mi
1239 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,099	$1.37	8d	1	0.25mi
1239 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	670	$955	$1.43	25d	1	0.25mi
1239 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$999	$1.25	44d	1	0.25mi
1730 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	938	$1,266	$1.35	25d	1	0.27mi
1730 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	761	$981	$1.29	22d	1	0.27mi
1730 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	761	$981	$1.29	44d	1	0.27mi
1300 Gemini St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,949	$2.04	2d	32	0.28mi
2000 Bay Area Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	841	$1,764	$2.10	2d	18	0.52mi
47 Buccaneer Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,095	$1.22	25d	1	0.53mi
47 Buccaneer Ln Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	730	$935	$1.28	44d	1	0.53mi
47 Buccaneer Ln Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	730	$935	$1.28	17d	1	0.53mi
16457 El Camino Real Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	813	$1,299	$1.60	2d	28	0.57mi
16306 Sea Lark Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	909	$1,083	$1.19	44d	1	0.74mi
16202 El Camino Real Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$916	$1.31	16d	1	0.75mi
16202 El Camino Real Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	919	$1,290	$1.40	6d	1	0.76mi
16202 El Camino Real Unit 1162 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	851	$965	$1.13	8d	1	0.76mi
16202 El Camino Real Unit 1112 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	851	$962	$1.13	3d	1	0.76mi
16202 El Camino Real Unit 2112 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	919	$1,282	$1.39	3d	1	0.76mi
1400 El Camino Village Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1060	$1,996	$1.88	2d	34	0.77mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 16251 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	682	$833	$1.22	44d	1	0.82mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	975	$1,002	$1.03	6d	1	0.82mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 16257 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	975	$1,112	$1.14	44d	1	0.82mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 16221 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	682	$838	$1.23	13d	1	0.82mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	975	$1,002	$1.03	8d	1	0.82mi
16200 Center Blvd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	975	$994	$1.02	3d	1	0.82mi
16202 El Camino Real Unit 16253 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$832	$1.19	44d	1	0.83mi
16202 El Camino Real Unit 16223 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	851	$1,004	$1.18	11d	1	0.83mi
16202 El Camino Real Apt 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	919	$1,290	$1.40	8d	1	0.83mi
16202 El Camino Real Unit 16229 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	919	$1,314	$1.43	11d	1	0.83mi
16100 Center Blvd Unit 16151 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	678	$925	$1.36	44d	1	0.83mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $455 · $5,460/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $79,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    price $85,000 45-char remark

    Show marketing remark (45 chars)

    All laminate throughout except for bathrooms.

16. 2026-04-21
    status Active 45-char remark

    Show marketing remark (45 chars)

    All laminate throughout except for bathrooms.

17. 2026-02-17
    historical 45-char remark

    Show marketing remark (45 chars)

    All laminate throughout except for bathrooms.

18. 2026-02-06
    price $90,000 45-char remark

    Show marketing remark (45 chars)

    All laminate throughout except for bathrooms.

19. 2026-01-27
    listed $94,000 Active 45-char remark

    Show marketing remark (45 chars)

    All laminate throughout except for bathrooms.

20. 2018-10-29
    soldstatus
21. 1990-05-01
    soldstatus $30,000
22. 1988-11-01
    soldstatus $28,408

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,367 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,367 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$2,367
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,161
• − Management: −$1,161
• − HOA: −$5,460
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable loss: −$2,757
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$662
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clear Creek ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814280
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,240
• Composite: 46.49/100
• National rank: #2431
• State rank: #114 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,850
• Household income: $68,722
• Rent vs Own: 68.8% rent · 31.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1147.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Asian 10% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 5% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.22%
• Current HPI: 225.0251
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+199.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $94,000 HARMLS
• 2018-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1988-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,408 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,367 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.