620 Thunder Gulch Ave

Red Bank, SC 29073

$324,990F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,334 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,472/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$542
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-293/mo
• Annual: $-3,512/yr
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.86%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $90,997

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-293 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (13.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (23.9% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $247k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#121 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Lexington 01 (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #11 of 80 in SC (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Red Bank Elementary (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #286 of 597 statewide, top 49%, 568 students, 41% FRL); Carolina Springs Middle (math 25% / reading 39%, grade F, #119 of 229 statewide, top 54%, 914 students, 46% FRL); White Knoll High (math 47% / reading 85%, grade B, #81 of 196 statewide, top 42%, 2,204 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,712 units permitted in Lexington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lexington County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.