620 Thunder Gulch Ave · Red Bank, SC 29073

$324,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,334 sqft · Land · 31 Days on market

Built 2025 ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Ashton Lakes, a premier community that embodies resort lifestyle living, featuring amenities such as a pool, cabana, and playground only eight minutes to downtown Lexington. The 4 BR Clayton plan is a carefully designed home built with a large open floor concept with luxury features, dining room and fireplace. This ready to move in home is prioritizing energy efficiency through sustainable practices, HERS rating, and adherence to NAHB green building standards, translating to everyday savings on utilities. Disclaimer: CMLS has not reviewed and, therefore, does not endorse vendors who may appear in listings. Disclaimer: CMLS has not reviewed and, therefore, does not endorse vendo

Key facts

• Hers rating
• Energy efficiency
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• LARGE OPEN FLOOR CONCEPT
• ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• HERS RATING
• NAHB GREEN BUILDING STANDARDS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community has an association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story home
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Partial brick above foundation with vinyl siding; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Over-the-range microwave; Free-standing range
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with private bath (second floor); Additional bedrooms located on the second floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Two second full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling with zoned controls; Gas heat with zoned controls (gas on first and second levels)
• Interior features: One fireplace; Tray ceilings in master bedroom; Molding in formal dining room; Free-standing range
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the second floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-293 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (13.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#121 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Lexington 01 (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #11 of 80 in SC (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Red Bank Elementary (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #286 of 597 statewide, top 49%, 568 students, 41% FRL); White Knoll High (math 47% / reading 85%, grade B, #81 of 196 statewide, top 42%, 2,204 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 563 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,712 units permitted in Lexington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lexington County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,248 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.86%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-70,667
• Equity at exit: $48,457

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-82,918
• Equity at exit: $28,099

Cash invested: $90,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29073

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 563
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,472 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,875/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,843

Max offer price $282,641

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-68	-5% $-180	+0% $-293	+5% $-405	+10% $-517
Rent	-10% $-488	-5% $-390	+0% $-293	+5% $-195	+10% $-97
Rate	-1.0pp $-129	-0.5pp $-210	base $-293	+0.5pp $-377	+1.0pp $-463

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,248
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1607 Commendable Ct Lexington, SC	4.0	2.5	1783	$2,238	$1.26	24d	1	0.09mi
156 Secretariat St Lexington, SC	4.0	2.5	2591	$2,500	$0.96	15d	1	0.13mi
449 Lady Liberty Way Lexington, SC	3.0	3.0	1635	$1,995	$1.22	24d	1	0.56mi
464 Lady Liberty Way Lexington, SC	4.0	2.5	2100	$2,150	$1.02	24d	1	0.58mi
919 Dovefield Ln Lexington, SC	4.0	2.5	2022	$2,299	$1.14	24d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   listed $324,990 Active
3. 2026-03-19
   price $334,990
4. 2025-08-04
   price $339,990
5. 2025-05-29
   listed $335,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,670
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,204
• − Property taxes: −$4,875
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,374
• − Management: −$2,374
• − Depreciation: −$9,454
• Taxable loss: −$9,236
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,217
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington 01
• NCES district ID: 4502700
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,298
• Composite: 41.75/100
• National rank: #3399
• State rank: #11 of 80 in SC

Livability — Red Bank

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #121
• US rank: #11985

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Red Bank, SC
• County: Lexington County · 232,571 people
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 53,156
• Household income: $77,229
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 935.0

Population outlook (Lexington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 322,999 people
• By 2030: 342,356 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 377,715 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 406,984 · +26.0%
• By 2075: 465,447 · +44.1%
• By 2100: 485,674 · +50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lexington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.5% · R 66.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: -38.0pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+30.1 2016: R+36.7 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+38.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.20%
• Current HPI: 249.8957
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.24%
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $324,990 Consolidated MLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $334,990 Consolidated MLS
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $339,990 Consolidated MLS
• 2025-05-29 Listed $335,990 Consolidated MLS