2690 Bear Swamp Rd

Cazenovia, NY 13037

$172,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Pending · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,455/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$902
• Tax + insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $712/mo
• Annual: $8,549/yr
• Cap rate: 11.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.75%
• DSCR: 1.79
• 1% rule: 1.43%
• Cash to close: $48,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $172k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $712 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $172k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#154 in NY, #2,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, schools A, crime A; Watch: commute F.
• Cazenovia Central School District (town): math 59% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #187 of 590 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $172k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 1.2% in Cazenovia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.