2690 Bear Swamp Rd · Cazenovia, NY 13037

$172,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1999 0.84 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One level living at its best! Beautiful country setting in the Cazenovia School District with highly desired open floor plan. 3 bedrooms and two full baths. New sliding barn door to the master suite with full bath and large closet. New laminate flooring, new vinyl siding, new hot water tank, new pellet stove and stainless steal appliances. Just move in and enjoy the view.

Key facts

• Rural location
• One-level living
• Scenic views

Tags

• CAZENOVIA SCHOOL DISTRICT
• ONE-LEVEL LIVING
• BRAND-NEW FRONT PORCH
• SCENIC VIEWS
• RURAL LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $712 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $172k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 1.2% in Cazenovia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#154 in NY, #2,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, schools A, crime A; Watch: commute F.
• Cazenovia Central School District (town): math 59% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #187 of 590 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $172k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $166,840 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.75%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $17,562
• Equity at exit: $25,646

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $73,965
• Equity at exit: $14,871

Cash invested: $48,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13037

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,455 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$902
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,045/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $712

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,554

Max offer price $172,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,000
• Closing costs: $5,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   status Active
3. 2025-11-25
   status Pending
4. 2025-11-18
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2025-11-14
   price $172,000
6. 2025-10-29
   listed $175,000 Active
7. 2017-06-15
   soldstatus $86,520
8. 2017-06-14
   soldstatus $86,520 Closed Sale or Rented 375-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   One level living at its best! Beautiful country setting in the Cazenovia School District with highly desired open floor plan. 3 bedrooms and two full baths. New sliding barn door to the master suite with full bath and large closet. New laminate flooring, new vinyl siding, new hot water tank, new pellet stove and stainless steal appliances. Just move in and enjoy the view.

9. 2017-06-14
   soldstatus $84,000 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   One level living at its best! Beautiful country setting in the Cazenovia School District with highly desired open floor plan. 3 bedrooms and two full baths. New sliding barn door to the master suite with full bath and large closet. New laminate flooring, new vinyl siding, new hot water tank, new pellet stove and stainless steal appliances. Just move in and enjoy the view.

10. 2017-05-16
    status Pending Sale 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    One level living at its best! Beautiful country setting in the Cazenovia School District with highly desired open floor plan. 3 bedrooms and two full baths. New sliding barn door to the master suite with full bath and large closet. New laminate flooring, new vinyl siding, new hot water tank, new pellet stove and stainless steal appliances. Just move in and enjoy the view.

11. 2017-04-03
    historical Under Contract- Do Not Show 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    One level living at its best! Beautiful country setting in the Cazenovia School District with highly desired open floor plan. 3 bedrooms and two full baths. New sliding barn door to the master suite with full bath and large closet. New laminate flooring, new vinyl siding, new hot water tank, new pellet stove and stainless steal appliances. Just move in and enjoy the view.

12. 2017-04-03
    historical 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    One level living at its best! Beautiful country setting in the Cazenovia School District with highly desired open floor plan. 3 bedrooms and two full baths. New sliding barn door to the master suite with full bath and large closet. New laminate flooring, new vinyl siding, new hot water tank, new pellet stove and stainless steal appliances. Just move in and enjoy the view.

13. 2017-03-21
    listed $89,000 Active 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    One level living at its best! Beautiful country setting in the Cazenovia School District with highly desired open floor plan. 3 bedrooms and two full baths. New sliding barn door to the master suite with full bath and large closet. New laminate flooring, new vinyl siding, new hot water tank, new pellet stove and stainless steal appliances. Just move in and enjoy the view.

14. 2017-03-21
    listed $89,000 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    One level living at its best! Beautiful country setting in the Cazenovia School District with highly desired open floor plan. 3 bedrooms and two full baths. New sliding barn door to the master suite with full bath and large closet. New laminate flooring, new vinyl siding, new hot water tank, new pellet stove and stainless steal appliances. Just move in and enjoy the view.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,045 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,045 · $254/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,465
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,635
• − Property taxes: −$3,045
• − Insurance: −$860
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,357
• − Management: −$2,357
• − Depreciation: −$5,004
• Taxable income: $6,208
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,490
• After-tax cash flow: $7,059/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cazenovia Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606780
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,232
• Composite: 54.68/100
• National rank: #1327
• State rank: #187 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cazenovia

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #154
• US rank: #2396

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living C Crime A Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,519

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,528 people
• By 2030: 66,599 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 59,814 · -14.0%
• By 2050: 52,842 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,167 · -43.7%
• By 2100: 28,442 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 43.5% · R 56.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+15.9 2012: D+0.3 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.53%
• Current HPI: 272.9953
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+93.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2025-11-25 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-11-18 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $172,000 CNYIS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $175,000 CNYIS
• 2017-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $86,520 Public Records
• 2017-06-14 Sold (MLS) $84,000 CNYIS
• 2017-06-14 Sold (MLS) $86,520 CNYIS
• 2017-05-16 Pending — CNYIS
• 2017-04-03 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2017-04-03 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2017-03-21 Listed $89,000 CNYIS
• 2017-03-21 Listed $89,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,045 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.