5029 Dowd Rd

Bastrop, LA 71220

$69,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Active · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,074/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax + insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $378/mo
• Annual: $4,535/yr
• Cap rate: 12.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.48%
• DSCR: 2.04
• 1% rule: 1.56%
• Cash to close: $19,320

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#425 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Morehouse Parish (town): math 10% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #83 of 98 in LA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Morehouse Elementary School (math 3% / reading 9%, grade F, #630 of 646 statewide, top 98%, 587 students, 6% FRL); Bastrop High School (math 3% / reading 7%, grade F, #260 of 265 statewide, top 100%, 902 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools average 6% FRL vs 78% district-wide (72 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Morehouse Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Morehouse County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.