2621 Prescott Rd #40

Modesto, CA 95350

$69,999C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 219 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,504/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $704/mo
• Annual: $8,449/yr
• Cap rate: 18.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.11%
• DSCR: 2.92
• 1% rule: 2.15%
• Cash to close: $19,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $704 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, health & safety D+, commute D.
• Stanislaus Union Elementary (urban): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #344 of 517 in CA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Josephine Chrysler Elementary (math 8% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,494 of 1,571 statewide, top 95%, 641 students, 90% FRL); Prescott Junior High (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #220 of 498 statewide, top 45%, 739 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 53% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 396 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 18.4% vs local median 3.3% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.