12 Waterwheel Cir

Clark Mills, NY 13413

$159,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,224/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$230
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $693/mo
• Annual: $8,313/yr
• Cap rate: 11.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.67%
• DSCR: 1.83
• 1% rule: 1.40%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $693 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $157k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#383 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clinton Central School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #185 of 590 in NY (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Clinton Elementary School (math 55% / reading 78%, grade B+, #575 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 546 students, 27% FRL); Clinton Middle School (math 43% / reading 65%, grade B-, #225 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 286 students, 28% FRL); Clinton Senior High School (math 98%, 382 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.