12 Waterwheel Cir · Clark Mills, NY 13413

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Manufactured · 28 Days on market

Built 2000 436 sqft lot $84/sqft · 26% above area Est $126k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move right into this spacious double-wide home offering comfort, space, and convenience throughout. Featuring a single-stall attached garage, this well-maintained home boasts a large living room, formal dining room, and an inviting family room complete with a wet bar — perfect for entertaining or relaxing. The eat-in kitchen with large island offers plenty of room for gatherings, while the impressive primary suite provides a true retreat with a beautiful primary bath, an additional private shower and toilet room, and oversized walk-in closets. Two additional bedrooms offer space for family, guests, or a home office. Glass sliding doors off the dining room lead to a deck, creating the

Key facts

• Inviting family room
• Formal dining room
• Wet bar

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE HOME
• SINGLE-STALL ATTACHED GARAGE
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• INVITING FAMILY ROOM
• WET BAR

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property has a land lease of $600

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with workshop and storage; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story double wide mobile home; Resale property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Food disposal
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Main level primary; Primary suite
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $693 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $157k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#383 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Clinton Central School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #185 of 590 in NY (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $156,615 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.67%
• DSCR: 1.83
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,000
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: 26.19%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
144 Anthony Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,764 (-7%)	4mo	$68,000	$39	76
3 Hickory Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	2,016 (+6%)	18mo	$110,000	$55	73
7 Hickory Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,736 (-9%)	14mo	$122,500	$71	70
139 Royal Meadows Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,792 (-6%)	5mo	$126,000	$70	66
320 Matthew Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,716 (-10%)	12mo	$125,000	$73	62
17 Hickory Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-12%)	19mo	$127,900	$76	61
462 Susan Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,736 (-9%)	21mo	$120,000	$69	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $18,367
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $72,855
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13413

• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,224 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,969/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $693

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,347

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $783	-5% $738	+0% $693	+5% $648	+10% $603
Rent	-10% $517	-5% $605	+0% $693	+5% $781	+10% $868
Rate	-1.0pp $773	-0.5pp $733	base $693	+0.5pp $652	+1.0pp $610

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $159,000 Pending 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $159,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $159,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $159,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $159,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-05-13
    listed $159,000 Active 918-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,969 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,328 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$359/yr (+$30/mo · 18.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,969
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,135
• − Management: −$2,135
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $6,121
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,469
• After-tax cash flow: $6,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clinton Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607770
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $57,439
• Composite: 55.05/100
• National rank: #1290
• State rank: #185 of 590 in NY

Livability — Clark Mills

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #383
• US rank: #6606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clark Mills, NY
• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 815
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,742
• Household income: $95,261
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 395.0

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 4% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Vietnam, China, Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -210.17%
• Current HPI: 295.4235
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $159,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+20.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,969 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.