8019 Grady Dr

Suncoast Estates, FL 33917

$170,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · Built 2022 · Land · Active · 429 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,665/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$582
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $-159/mo
• Annual: $-1,906/yr
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.75%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-159 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (2.1% below list).
• It's been on market 429 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $142k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#507 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: commute D, schools F, amenities F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 841 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $47k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $170k implies a 278% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 429 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.