8019 Grady Dr · Suncoast Estates, FL 33917

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · Land · 429 Days on market

Built 2022 0.49 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NO HOA, Clear half acre, zoned for Manufactures Home, Mobile Home Own you own land. Impact fee should be waived because this previously had mobile home.

Key facts

• Brand new well pump
• Over sized lot
• 0.49 acre lot

Tags

• NEW FUJI SEPTIC SYSTEM
• BRAND NEW WELL PUMP
• OVER SIZED LOT
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO DINING
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Non-gated community; No association fee

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Cable not available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Faces east; Resale condition
• Construction: Shingle roof; Vinyl siding; Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Security/high impact doors; Smoke detector(s); Oversized lot; West exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Freezer; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Built-in features; Family/Dining room; Living/Dining room; Pantry; Window treatments; Window coverings; Impact glass; Air filtration; Air purifier; Handicap access; Unfurnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-159 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#507 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: commute D, schools F, amenities F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 841 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 429 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $47k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $170k implies a 278% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $141,940 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 429 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.75%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-38,072
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-47,846
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33917

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 841
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,665 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,021/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $-159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,866

Max offer price $141,940

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8028 Breeze Dr North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	23d	1	0.22mi
2388 Case Ln North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,825	$1.72	3d	1	0.35mi
2376 Case Ln Unit A North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1440	$1,800	$1.25	23d	1	0.36mi
410 Suwanee Dr North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,650	$1.11	23d	1	0.49mi
8146 Tolles Dr North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$850	$1.08	23d	1	0.57mi
16900 Slater Rd North Fort Myers, FL	2.0–4.0	2.0	1120	$1,524	$1.36	2d	17	0.67mi
7622 Peyraud Dr North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,350	$0.96	23d	1	0.75mi
2500 Gail Helen Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,500	$1.16	23d	1	0.90mi
280 Flame Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	980	$1,350	$1.38	3d	1	1.15mi
106 Gaslight Ave North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,400	$1.33	3d	1	1.18mi
15020 Caspian Tern Ct Unit 103 North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.5	1286	$1,600	$1.24	23d	1	1.22mi
15050 Caspian Tern Ct #103 North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.5	1365	$1,520	$1.11	23d	1	1.25mi
226 Lamplighter Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$899	$1.00	23d	1	1.28mi
234 Lamplighter Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$895	$1.04	14d	1	1.30mi
137 Lantern Pl Unit A North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	1080	$1,200	$1.11	3d	1	1.33mi
15100 Caspian Tern Ct North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.5	1365	$1,595	$1.17	23d	1	1.34mi
4276 Cirella Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1378	$1,800	$1.31	23d	1	1.36mi
17489 Monte Isola Way North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1347	$1,800	$1.34	14d	1	1.37mi
17499 Monte Isola Way Unit 17499 North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1405	$1,800	$1.28	14d	1	1.37mi
4208 Caterina Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1347	$1,800	$1.34	14d	1	1.37mi
4264 Cirella Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1442	$2,000	$1.39	11d	1	1.37mi
4275 Cirella Ct North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	1378	$1,800	$1.31	23d	1	1.43mi
17400 Monte Isola Way North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,875	$1.29	23d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 429 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 428 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 427 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $170,000 Active 425 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,900 Active 421 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $184,900 Active 419 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $184,900 Active 414 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $184,900 Active 413 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $184,900 Active 412 DOM
10. 2026-04-01
    price $184,900
11. 2025-11-18
    price $190,000
12. 2025-11-14
    price $199,999
13. 2025-06-25
    price $204,000
14. 2025-03-30
    listed $217,000 Active
15. 2023-03-03
    soldstatus $45,000
16. 2023-03-02
    soldstatus $45,000 Closed 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    NO HOA, Clear half acre, zoned for Manufactures Home, Mobile Home Own you own land.

17. 2023-03-02
    soldstatus $45,000 Closed 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    NO HOA, Clear half acre, zoned for Manufactures Home, Mobile Home Own you own land.

18. 2023-02-16
    status Pending 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    NO HOA, Clear half acre, zoned for Manufactures Home, Mobile Home Own you own land.

19. 2023-02-14
    status Pending 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    NO HOA, Clear half acre, zoned for Manufactures Home, Mobile Home Own you own land. Impact fee should be waived because this previously had mobile home.

20. 2023-01-30
    listed $50,000 Active 83-char remark

    Show marketing remark (83 chars)

    NO HOA, Clear half acre, zoned for Manufactures Home, Mobile Home Own you own land.

21. 2023-01-28
    listed $50,000 Active 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    NO HOA, Clear half acre, zoned for Manufactures Home, Mobile Home Own you own land. Impact fee should be waived because this previously had mobile home.

22. 2022-09-30
    historical
23. 2021-09-15
    listed $60,000 Active
24. 2003-10-08
    soldstatus $38,000
25. 1988-08-03
    soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,021 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,411 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$390/yr (+$32/mo · 38.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,021
• − Insurance: −$5,968
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,598
• − Management: −$1,598
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$4,677
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,123
• After-tax cash flow: $-784/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Suncoast Estates

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #507
• US rank: #9351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Suncoast Estates, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,380
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 775.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.28%
• Current HPI: 282.2895
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.63%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2211.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $184,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $190,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $199,999 FORTMLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $204,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-03-30 Listed $217,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-02 Sold (MLS) $45,000 MARMLS
• 2023-03-02 Sold (MLS) $45,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-02-16 Pending — MARMLS
• 2023-02-14 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2023-01-30 Listed $50,000 MARMLS
• 2023-01-28 Listed $50,000 FORTMLS
• 2022-09-30 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2021-09-15 Listed $60,000 FORTMLS
• 2003-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 1988-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+25.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,021 · +77.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.