40944 Lincoln Pl

Cherry Valley, CA 92223

$235,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · Built 1987 · Manufactured · Pending · 113 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,989/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$272
• HOA: −$275
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-208/mo
• Annual: $-2,501/yr
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.80%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-208 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (15.4% below list).
• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $198k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,107 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Beaumont Unified (suburban): math 32% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #168 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Anna Hause Elementary (651 students, 68% FRL); San Gorgonio Middle (1,215 students, 67% FRL); Beaumont Senior High (math 36% / reading 63%, grade D, #352 of 1,170 statewide, top 31%, 3,328 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 45% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 288 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $107k; list at $235k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.3% in Cherry Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?