40944 Lincoln Pl · Cherry Valley, CA 92223

$235,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · Manufactured public records · 113 Days on market

Built 1987 6,534 sqft lot Est $291k · 19% under $275/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Highland Springs Golf Country Club! Nestled at the foot of the scenic San Bernardino National Forest, this charming home offers 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms in a desirable 55+ gated community. The front yard landscaped with low-maintenance features, with backyard views of the golf course. Highland Springs Golf Country Club is a hidden gem, offering a peaceful lifestyle with the added security and comfort of a gated neighborhood.

Key facts

• Gated neighborhood
• Golf course views
• 6,534 sq ft lot

Tags

• GOLF COURSE VIEWS
• GATED NEIGHBORHOOD
• LOW-MAINTENANCE FEATURES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $261 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).
• Recommended offer: $214k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.3% in Cherry Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,107 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Beaumont Unified (suburban): math 32% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #168 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $107k; list at $235k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,850 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.76%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $291,264
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40896 Oregon	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,800 (+1%)	2mo	$222,500	$124	75
10203 Overland Trl	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,776 (0%)	0mo	$265,000	$149	73
10765 Chisholm Trl	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,824 (+3%)	6mo	$279,900	$153	71
10435 Frontier Trl	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,700 (-4%)	2mo	$284,000	$167	71
40795 Laredo Trl	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,660 (-6%)	4mo	$330,000	$199	63
10493 Overland Trl	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,640 (-8%)	6mo	$325,000	$198	62
10322 Chisholm Trl	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,680 (-5%)	1mo	$265,000	$158	60
40825 Laredo Trl	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,900 (+7%)	8mo	$311,000	$164	59
40848 Laredo	0.53mi	2/2.0	2,020 (+14%)	2mo	$370,000	$183	50
40801 Cheyenne Trl	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,624 (-9%)	10mo	$315,000	$194	48
10135 Donner	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,990 (+12%)	5mo	$312,000	$157	44
10079 Chisholm	0.72mi	2/2.0	2,040 (+15%)	5mo	$335,000	$164	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-19,102
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $14,609
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92223

• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 286
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,583 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$174 /mo · $2,090/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$275
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,252

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $394	-5% $327	+0% $261	+5% $194	+10% $128
Rent	-10% $57	-5% $159	+0% $261	+5% $363	+10% $465
Rate	-1.0pp $379	-0.5pp $321	base $261	+0.5pp $200	+1.0pp $138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10770 Deerfield Dr Cherry Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1628	$2,295	$1.41	0d	1	0.11mi
39670 Grand Ave Cherry Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,595	$1.64	0d	1	1.36mi
1431 Bittersweet Dr Unit A Beaumont, CA	3.0	2.5	1377	$2,749	$2.00	23d	1	1.44mi
1341 Bittersweet Dr Unit F Beaumont, CA	3.0	2.5	1377	$2,650	$1.92	45d	1	1.46mi
39559 Cherry Valley Blvd Cherry Valley, CA	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,900	$1.56	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $275 · $3,300/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   price $235,000
3. 2026-04-15
   status Active
4. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-26
   status Active
6. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
7. 2026-03-17
   status Active
8. 2026-03-14
   status Pending
9. 2026-03-03
   status Active
10. 2026-02-18
    status Pending
11. 2026-02-14
    price $260,400
12. 2026-01-14
    price $285,200
13. 2026-01-13
    status Active
14. 2026-01-07
    status Pending
15. 2025-11-22
    listed $310,000 Active
16. 1996-02-29
    soldstatus $107,000
17. 1987-10-16
    soldstatus $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,090 · $174/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,090 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 38 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,993
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$2,090
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,479
• − Management: −$2,479
• − HOA: −$3,300
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$531
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$128
• After-tax cash flow: $3,258/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beaumont Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604290
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $60,635
• Composite: 40.37/100
• National rank: #3736
• State rank: #168 of 517 in CA

Livability — Cherry Valley

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1107
• US rank: #25562

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cherry Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 63,833
• Household income: $102,761
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1096.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 37% Two or more races 16% Black 8% Asian 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -395.13%
• Current HPI: 373.4608
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.85%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+104.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $235,000 GPSMLS
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — GPSMLS
• 2026-04-07 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2026-03-26 Relisted — GPSMLS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2026-03-17 Relisted — GPSMLS
• 2026-03-14 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — GPSMLS
• 2026-02-18 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $260,400 GPSMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $285,200 GPSMLS
• 2026-01-13 Relisted — GPSMLS
• 2026-01-07 Pending — GPSMLS
• 2025-11-22 Listed $310,000 GPSMLS
• 1996-02-29 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records
• 1987-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,090 · -30.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.