1930 Larson #8 Rd

Lake of the Woods, AZ 85929

$44,500C

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 596 sqft · Built 1987 · Manufactured · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,400/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$233
• Tax + insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $798/mo
• Annual: $9,582/yr
• Cap rate: 27.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.90%
• DSCR: 4.42
• 1% rule: 3.15%
• Cash to close: $12,460

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $44k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $798 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $44k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $308 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#206 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #139 of 249 in AZ (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 257 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 12 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $44k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 27.8% vs local median 2.4% in Lake of the Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major: interior carpet — Severe wear and tear
• Major: interior paint — Worn and faded