1930 Larson #8 Rd · Lake of the Woods, AZ 85929

$44,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 596 sqft · Manufactured · 23 Days on market

Built 1987 Fair condition Est $30k · 49% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pristine Park Model with a Lovely Deck to Enjoy the Summer Days and Cool Nights in the White Mountains of Arizona. Surrounded by Tall Pines this Peaceful Location Provides Relaxation, Privacy, and is Fully Furnished and Move In Ready. Close to Rainbow Lake Park for Fishing, Boating, and Bird Watching. Bring the Grandchildern to enjoy it all with you. The Perfect Suimmer Getaway and you can enjoy this park Year Round.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Large windows
• Close to hiking

Tags

• LARGE ELECTRIFIED ADDITION
• COVERED DECK
• LARGE WINDOWS
• CLOSE TO HIKING
• CLOSE TO FISHING
• CLOSE TO SKYING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private maintained road; Year remodeled: 2026
• HOA & community: No HOA; Community clubhouse; 55+ community; Located in Singing Pines Mobile Home Park; Lease land: yes, $485 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Directions to unit available in listing remarks
• Utilities: Public sewer available; Metered water (Singing Pines); Electric on individual meter; Power available; Water available; Sewer available
• Home design: Park model/RV; One level; Private-adjoining property
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Stemwall foundation; Metal pitched roof; Built by Skyline; Park model
• Exterior features: Landscaped; Tall pines on lot; Property in the trees; Utility building; Covered deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Pantry; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom downstairs
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central A/C; Electric forced air heat; Electric water heater
• Interior features: Master bedroom located downstairs; Furnished; Living/dining room combo; Other rooms as noted in remarks; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $44k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $798 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $44k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.8% vs local median 2.4% in Lake of the Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#206 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #139 of 249 in AZ (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 257 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $308 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $44k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,832 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.90%
• DSCR: 4.42
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $29,800
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1930 Larson #13 Rd #13	0.00mi	1/1.0	600 (+1%)	11mo	$30,000	$50	90
2468 Running Bear Rd #56	0.33mi	1/1.0	672 (+13%)	10mo	$11,250	$17	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 76.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.50×
• Total profit: $43,665
• Equity at exit: $6,635

10-year hold

• IRR: 80.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.31×
• Total profit: $103,593
• Equity at exit: $3,848

Cash invested: $12,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85929

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Active inventory: 257
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$233
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $668/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $798

Break-even live

Break-even rent $389

Max offer price $44,500

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $829	-5% $814	+0% $798	+5% $783	+10% $768
Rent	-10% $688	-5% $743	+0% $798	+5% $854	+10% $909
Rate	-1.0pp $821	-0.5pp $810	base $798	+0.5pp $787	+1.0pp $775

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,125
• Closing costs: $1,335
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1412 Amanda Dr Unit 9 Lakeside, AZ	1.0	1.0	399	$1,400	$3.51	44d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $44,500 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,500 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,500 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,500 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,500 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $44,500 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $44,500 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,500 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,500 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,500 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-06
    days on market $44,500 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $44,500 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,500 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,500 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,500 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,500 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-28
    listed $44,500 Active
18. 2026-03-25
    soldstatus $28,000 Closed
19. 2026-03-05
    status Pending
20. 2025-12-01
    soldstatus $45,900 Closed 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Pristine Park Model with a Lovely Deck to Enjoy the Summer Days and Cool Nights in the White Mountains of Arizona. Surrounded by Tall Pines this Peaceful Location Provides Relaxation, Privacy, and is Fully Furnished and Move In Ready. Close to Rainbow Lake Park for Fishing, Boating, and Bird Watching. Bring the Grandchildern to enjoy it all with you. The Perfect Suimmer Getaway and you can enjoy this park Year Round.

21. 2025-11-17
    listed $35,000 Active
22. 2025-11-15
    status Pending 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Pristine Park Model with a Lovely Deck to Enjoy the Summer Days and Cool Nights in the White Mountains of Arizona. Surrounded by Tall Pines this Peaceful Location Provides Relaxation, Privacy, and is Fully Furnished and Move In Ready. Close to Rainbow Lake Park for Fishing, Boating, and Bird Watching. Bring the Grandchildern to enjoy it all with you. The Perfect Suimmer Getaway and you can enjoy this park Year Round.

23. 2025-11-07
    soldstatus $80,000 Closed
24. 2025-09-03
    price $45,900 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Pristine Park Model with a Lovely Deck to Enjoy the Summer Days and Cool Nights in the White Mountains of Arizona. Surrounded by Tall Pines this Peaceful Location Provides Relaxation, Privacy, and is Fully Furnished and Move In Ready. Close to Rainbow Lake Park for Fishing, Boating, and Bird Watching. Bring the Grandchildern to enjoy it all with you. The Perfect Suimmer Getaway and you can enjoy this park Year Round.

25. 2025-06-25
    price $110,000
26. 2025-06-14
    price $40,000
27. 2025-06-12
    listed $49,900 Active 424-char remark

    Show marketing remark (424 chars)

    Pristine Park Model with a Lovely Deck to Enjoy the Summer Days and Cool Nights in the White Mountains of Arizona. Surrounded by Tall Pines this Peaceful Location Provides Relaxation, Privacy, and is Fully Furnished and Move In Ready. Close to Rainbow Lake Park for Fishing, Boating, and Bird Watching. Bring the Grandchildern to enjoy it all with you. The Perfect Suimmer Getaway and you can enjoy this park Year Round.

28. 2025-06-05
    listed $120,000 Active
29. 2025-05-24
    price $45,900
30. 2025-04-16
    price $49,900
31. 2025-04-09
    price $53,000
32. 2025-02-22
    soldstatus $25,000 Closed
33. 2025-02-18
    status Pending
34. 2025-02-01
    status Active
35. 2025-01-27
    status Pending
36. 2025-01-24
    listed $25,000 Active
37. 2024-06-07
    soldstatus $25,000 Closed
38. 2024-05-29
    price $27,000
39. 2024-05-14
    listed $30,000 Active
40. 2023-09-02
    price $32,000
41. 2023-08-21
    price $35,500
42. 2023-08-03
    price $38,000
43. 2023-08-03
    soldstatus $55,000 Closed
44. 2023-07-21
    historical
45. 2023-07-07
    price $57,000
46. 2023-06-30
    soldstatus $50,000 Closed
47. 2023-06-26
    listed $65,000 Active
48. 2023-06-20
    soldstatus $37,500 Closed
49. 2023-06-13
    historical
50. 2023-06-01
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,493
• − Property taxes: −$668
• − Insurance: −$222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$1,295
• Taxable income: $9,435
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,264
• After-tax cash flow: $7,317/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. The exterior siding and interior carpet are in poor condition and should be replaced to enhance curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major interior carpet — Severe wear and tear
• Major interior paint — Worn and faded

Value-add opportunities

• Both New exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both New interior carpet — Improves comfort and aesthetics
• Both Fresh paint job — Enhances interior appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior carpet · Severe wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior paint · Worn and faded	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both New interior carpet — Improves comfort and aesthetics ↑
• Both Fresh paint job — Enhances interior appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397)
• NCES district ID: 0406580
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,406
• Composite: 21.97/100
• National rank: #8213
• State rank: #139 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Lake of the Woods

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #20890

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake of the Woods, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 7,280

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Native American 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.03%
• Current HPI: 383.9587
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+123.3% since first listed

51 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $44,500 WMMLS
• 2026-03-25 Sold (MLS) $28,000 WMMLS
• 2026-03-05 Pending — WMMLS
• 2025-12-01 Sold (MLS) $45,900 WMMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $35,000 WMMLS
• 2025-11-15 Pending — WMMLS
• 2025-11-07 Sold (MLS) $80,000 WMMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $45,900 WMMLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $110,000 WMMLS
• 2025-06-14 Price Changed $40,000 WMMLS
• 2025-06-12 Listed $49,900 WMMLS
• 2025-06-05 Listed $120,000 WMMLS
• 2025-05-24 Price Changed $45,900 WMMLS
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $49,900 WMMLS
• 2025-04-09 Price Changed $53,000 WMMLS
• 2025-02-22 Sold (MLS) $25,000 WMMLS
• 2025-02-18 Pending — WMMLS
• 2025-02-01 Relisted — WMMLS
• 2025-01-27 Pending — WMMLS
• 2025-01-24 Listed $25,000 WMMLS
• 2024-06-07 Sold (MLS) $25,000 WMMLS
• 2024-05-29 Price Changed $27,000 WMMLS
• 2024-05-14 Listed $30,000 WMMLS
• 2023-09-02 Price Changed $32,000 WMMLS
• 2023-08-21 Price Changed $35,500 WMMLS
• 2023-08-03 Price Changed $38,000 WMMLS
• 2023-08-03 Sold (MLS) $55,000 WMMLS
• 2023-07-21 Delisted — WMMLS
• 2023-07-07 Price Changed $57,000 WMMLS
• 2023-06-30 Sold (MLS) $50,000 WMMLS
• 2023-06-26 Listed $65,000 WMMLS
• 2023-06-20 Sold (MLS) $37,500 WMMLS
• 2023-06-13 Delisted — WMMLS
• 2023-06-01 Delisted — WMMLS
• 2023-05-26 Price Changed $37,500 WMMLS
• 2023-04-12 Price Changed $39,000 WMMLS
• 2023-04-12 Price Changed $55,000 WMMLS
• 2023-03-31 Relisted — WMMLS
• 2023-03-21 Listed $60,000 WMMLS
• 2023-03-16 Delisted — WMMLS
• 2022-10-11 Listed $40,000 WMMLS
• 2022-10-05 Price Changed $40,000 WMMLS
• 2022-06-14 Price Changed $95,000 WMMLS
• 2022-06-03 Sold (MLS) $73,000 WMMLS
• 2022-06-01 Price Changed $110,000 WMMLS
• 2022-05-29 Delisted — WMMLS
• 2022-05-13 Listed $75,000 WMMLS
• 2021-09-14 Sold (MLS) $18,750 WMMLS
• 2020-07-24 Sold (MLS) $30,000 WMMLS
• 2020-05-06 Sold (MLS) $21,000 WMMLS
• 2019-06-14 Sold (MLS) $19,925 WMMLS