290 Northwoods Ave

Manteca, CA 95336

$600,000D

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,698 sqft · Built 1979 · MultiFamily · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,065/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax + insurance: −$449
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$854
• Net cashflow: $-384/mo
• Annual: $-4,612/yr
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.75%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $168,000

Investor read

• This is a 8-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $600k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-384 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $532k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $406k (32.2% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($591k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $406k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#535 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Manteca Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #297 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 272 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $600k implies a 380% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.7% in Manteca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,065/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 876% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.