290 Northwoods Ave · Manteca, CA 95336

$600,000

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,698 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1979 8,176 sqft lot $353/sqft · 20% below area Est $752k · 20% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Welcome to a rare and versatile opportunity at 290 Northwoods Ave and 302 Lovell Way in the heart of Manteca. This unique property features two well-designed units, each offering 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and the convenience of a private single-car garage. Whether you're looking to invest, live in one unit while renting the other, or expand your real estate portfolio, this property delivers flexibility and potential. 290 Northwoods Ave has been thoughtfully updated with brand-new vinyl flooring, creating a modern and durable living space, complemented by fresh interior paint that gives the home a clean, move-in-ready feel. The addition of a new dishwasher enhances everyday convenience in the

Key facts

• Large lot
• New dishwasher
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• PRIVATE SINGLE-CAR GARAGE
• BRAND-NEW VINYL FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW DISHWASHER
• GENEROUSLY SIZED BACKYARD
• LARGE LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Garage parking (2 total spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Internet available
• Home design: Residential income duplex; Single-story
• Construction: Built in 1979
• Exterior features: Landscaped front yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas oven; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: One unit has 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Free standing gas oven; Dishwasher
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in each unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 8-bed/4.0-bath multifamily listed at $600k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-384 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $532k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $406k (32.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $406k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.7% in Manteca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#535 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Manteca Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #297 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 272 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,065/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 876% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($591k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $600k implies a 380% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $406,500 (32.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.75%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $752,096
• List price: $600,000
• Delta: -20.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-133,894
• Equity at exit: $89,462

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-195,276
• Equity at exit: $51,877

Cash invested: $168,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95336

• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 272
• Price-to-rent: 24.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,065 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,146
• Tax from tax record: −$199 /mo · $2,391/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$854
• Net cashflow: $-384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,551

Max offer price $532,107

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-45	-5% $-215	+0% $-384	+5% $-554	+10% $-724
Rent	-10% $-705	-5% $-545	+0% $-384	+5% $-224	+10% $-63
Rate	-1.0pp $-82	-0.5pp $-232	base $-384	+0.5pp $-540	+1.0pp $-698

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$4,064
Total (2 units)			$4,065

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $150,000
• Closing costs: $18,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 1989-05-25
   soldstatus $125,000
2. 1985-06-19
   soldstatus $85,000
3. 1984-09-11
   soldstatus $77,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,391 · $199/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,560 · $380/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,169/yr (+$181/mo · 90.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,609
• − Property taxes: −$2,391
• − Insurance: −$3,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,902
• − Management: −$3,902
• − Depreciation: −$17,455
• Taxable loss: −$15,479
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,715
• After-tax cash flow: $-897/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manteca Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623610
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,426
• Composite: 28.5/100
• National rank: #6737
• State rank: #297 of 517 in CA

Livability — Manteca

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #17877

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manteca, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 98,916
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 50,185
• Household income: $89,172
• Rent vs Own: 29.5% rent · 70.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 876.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 42% Two or more races 18% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -407.05%
• Current HPI: 268.5708
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+62.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 1989-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 1985-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1984-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,391 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.