454 Old Airport Rd

Adwolf, VA 24319

$287,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Active · 93 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,104/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,510
• Tax + insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $-898/mo
• Annual: $-10,772/yr
• Cap rate: 2.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.37%
• DSCR: 0.45
• 1% rule: 0.38%
• Cash to close: $80,612

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $288k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-898 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (55.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (61.6% below list).
• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (61.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#349 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Smyth County Public School District (rural): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #89 of 131 in VA (top 68%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chilhowie Elementary (math 36% / reading 49%, grade F, #862 of 1,108 statewide, top 78%, 543 students, 89% FRL); Chilhowie Middle (math 62% / reading 69%, grade A-, #116 of 342 statewide, top 35%, 306 students, 70% FRL); Chilhowie High (math 62% / reading 82%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 393 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 54% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Smyth County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Smyth County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 3.9% in Adwolf — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 62% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.