454 Old Airport Rd · Adwolf, VA 24319

$287,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1997 5.01 ac lot $173/sqft · 15% below area Est $339k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Cash flow +3.8/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Serenity abounds on this 5 acre tract with a well maintained 3 BR, 2 BA home that can be utilized as a one residence home with a mother-in-law suite on ground level, or use as two rental units while building your dream home on the acreage. Take in the fantastic views of the Iron Mountain Range of the Appalachian Mountains, yet just a ten minute drive to I-81 and US Hwy. 11. Just another short drive to the South Fork of the Holston River with stocked trout fishing waters, or on to the Mt. Rogers National Recreation Area where you will find horseback riding, hiking, hunting & picnicking areas. Two spacious storage buildings, two parking areas, public water, septic system - all already in place for your added convenience and usage.

Key facts

• Two parking areas
• Public water
• Septic system

Tags

• IRON MOUNTAIN RANGE VIEWS
• TWO SPACIOUS STORAGE BUILDINGS
• TWO PARKING AREAS
• PUBLIC WATER
• SEPTIC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $288k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-898 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (55.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (61.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (61.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 3.9% in Adwolf — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#349 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Smyth County Public School District (rural): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #89 of 131 in VA (top 68%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chilhowie Elementary (math 36% / reading 49%, grade F, #862 of 1,108 statewide, top 78%, 543 students, 89% FRL); Chilhowie Middle (math 62% / reading 69%, grade A-, #116 of 342 statewide, top 35%, 306 students, 70% FRL); Chilhowie High (math 62% / reading 82%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 393 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 54% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Smyth County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Smyth County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,448 (61.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 62% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.38% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.37%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 21.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $339,450
• List price: $287,900
• Delta: -15.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $99,505
• Equity at exit: $259,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.19×
• Total profit: $337,752
• Equity at exit: $559,326

Cash invested: $80,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24319

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 21.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,104 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,510
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $889/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $-898

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,241

Max offer price $129,317

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-735	-5% $-816	+0% $-898	+5% $-979	+10% $-1,061
Rent	-10% $-985	-5% $-941	+0% $-898	+5% $-854	+10% $-810
Rate	-1.0pp $-753	-0.5pp $-824	base $-898	+0.5pp $-972	+1.0pp $-1,048

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,975
• Closing costs: $8,637
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $287,900 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $287,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $287,900 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $287,900 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $287,900 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $287,900 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $287,900 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $287,900 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $287,900 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $287,900 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $287,900 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $287,900 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $287,900 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $287,900 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $287,900 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $287,900 Active 73 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $287,900 Active 72 DOM
18. 2026-03-20
    listed $287,900 Active 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Serenity abounds on this 5 acre tract with a well maintained 3 BR, 2 BA home that can be utilized as a one residence home with a mother-in-law suite on ground level, or use as two rental units while building your dream home on the acreage. Take in the fantastic views of the Iron Mountain Range of the Appalachian Mountains, yet just a ten minute drive to I-81 and US Hwy. 11. Just another short drive to the South Fork of the Holston River with stocked trout fishing waters, or on to the Mt. Rogers National Recreation Area where you will find horseback riding, hiking, hunting & picnicking areas. Two spacious storage buildings, two parking areas, public water, septic system - all already in place for your added convenience and usage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $889 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,361 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,472/yr (+$123/mo · 165.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,254
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,127
• − Property taxes: −$889
• − Insurance: −$2,237
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,060
• − Management: −$1,060
• − Depreciation: −$8,375
• Taxable loss: −$16,495
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,959
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,814/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smyth County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103520
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $36,901
• Composite: 45.2/100
• National rank: #2672
• State rank: #89 of 131 in VA

Livability — Adwolf

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #13855

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,963

Population outlook (Smyth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,740 people
• By 2030: 28,593 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 26,091 · -12.3%
• By 2050: 23,629 · -20.5%
• By 2075: 18,365 · -38.2%
• By 2100: 13,697 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smyth

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.4% · R 79.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.4pp toward R · 2008: -29.1pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.3 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+33.0 2008: R+29.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.03%
• Current HPI: 257.8732
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $287,900 SWVAR

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $889 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.