1505 Shelley Dr

Vandalia, IL 62471

$137,500D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,517 sqft · Built 1960 · Other · Active · 371 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,223/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$721
• Tax + insurance: −$286
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $-42/mo
• Annual: $-500/yr
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.30%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $38,500

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $138k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-500/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (11.1% below list).
• It's been on market 371 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $951 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#348 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Vandalia CUSD 203 (town): math 17% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #414 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Vandalia Elementary School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #658 of 2,056 statewide, top 35%, 542 students, 0% FRL); Vandalia Junior High School (math 12% / reading 26%, grade F, #436 of 665 statewide, top 66%, 511 students, 0% FRL); Vandalia Community High School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #397 of 693 statewide, top 61%, 408 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 51% district-wide (51 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP.
• Fayette County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.9% in Vandalia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 371 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.