517 King St

Port Royal, VA 22535

$40,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,370/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax + insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $1,558/mo
• Annual: $18,697/yr
• Cap rate: 53.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 166.93%
• DSCR: 8.43
• 1% rule: 5.92%
• Cash to close: $11,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $963 appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#456 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Caroline County Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #95 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 318 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caroline County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.