517 King St · Port Royal, VA 22535

$40,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1973 7,609 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great lot in the town of Port Royal. Home will most likely need to be torn down. Great chance for a clean slate and build a home of your own!

Key facts

• 7,609 sq ft lot
• Built 1973
• Listed 25 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#456 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Caroline County Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #95 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 318 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $963 appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Caroline County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,400 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 53.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 166.93%
• DSCR: 8.43
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.41% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.18×
• Total profit: $102,872
• Equity at exit: $16,668

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 21.43×
• Total profit: $228,808
• Equity at exit: $24,707

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22535

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,370 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,052/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $1,558

Break-even live

Break-even rent $398

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 29%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,581	-5% $1,569	+0% $1,558	+5% $1,547	+10% $1,535
Rent	-10% $1,371	-5% $1,464	+0% $1,558	+5% $1,652	+10% $1,745
Rate	-1.0pp $1,578	-0.5pp $1,568	base $1,558	+0.5pp $1,548	+1.0pp $1,537

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-09-02
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-15
   status Active
3. 2025-07-23
   status Pending
4. 2025-07-14
   listed $40,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,052 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,052 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$1,052
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,275
• − Management: −$2,275
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $19,231
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,616
• After-tax cash flow: $14,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100660
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,075
• Composite: 43.88/100
• National rank: #2920
• State rank: #95 of 131 in VA

Livability — Port Royal

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #456
• US rank: #19400

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment D+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port Royal, VA
• Population (ZIP): 602

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,136 people
• By 2030: 32,973 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 34,255 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 34,843 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 35,134 · +9.3%
• By 2100: 32,184 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 17% Two or more races 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Lithuanian 2% Danish 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.8) · D 45.1% · R 53.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: -8.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.8 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+5.1 2012: D+8.2 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• Current HPI: 285.7289
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-02 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-08-15 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2025-07-23 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-07-14 Listed $40,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,052 · +78.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.