Carson Plan

Punta Gorda, FL 33955

$320,999D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,933 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,259/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,048
• Tax + insurance: −$651
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$684
• Net cashflow: $-124/mo
• Annual: $-1,484/yr
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.36%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $109,330

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $321k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $321k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($316k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $316k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#225 in FL, #3,567 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 1481 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.8% in Punta Gorda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,259/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 226% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.