13193 Forge Ave

Ruskin, FL 34219

$229,999D-

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,180 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,211/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$383
• HOA: −$260
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-103/mo
• Annual: $-1,235/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.92%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-103 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (3.9% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $215k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.