13193 Forge Ave · Ruskin, FL 34219

$229,999

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,180 sqft · Townhouse · 25 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $212k · 8% over $260/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

What's Special: Preserve View | Conservation View | Backs to Open Space | Popular Plan | Covered Rear Deck | Model Plan. New Construction - Ready Now! Built by America's Most Trusted Home Builder. Welcome to the Hazel at 13193 Forge Avenue in The Towns at Firethorn! The Hazel offers in-demand features and thoughtful storage, creating a home that feels both welcoming and well designed. The foyer opens gently into the casual dining area and great room, forming a bright, comfortable space for everyday living. Toward the back of the first floor, the kitchen includes a large pantry, a convenient half bath, and easy access to the outdoor lanai for relaxed mornings or quiet evenings. Upstairs, the

Key facts

• Backs to open space
• Covered rear deck
• Large pantry

Tags

• BACKS TO OPEN SPACE
• COVERED REAR DECK
• LARGE PANTRY
• OUTDOOR LANAI
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• SPA INSPIRED BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Association fee includes pool and grounds maintenance; Total monthly fees listed as $260; total annual fees listed as $3,120
• Financial info: Other annual assessment approximately $688; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Castle Management Group; Monthly HOA approximately $260 (Quarterly fee listed as $780); HOA required with approval process; Community amenities include pool and playground; Community features also include dog park and street lights; Pets allowed with restrictions and limits

Exterior

• Parking: Common parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Phone available; Underground utilities; Sprinkler recycled; Fire hydrant nearby
• Home design: Attached townhouse; Two levels; East-facing; Under construction (projected completion: 2026-04-30)
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction; Built by Taylor Morrison (Model: Hazel)
• Exterior features: Hurricane shutters; Sliding doors; Storage; Conservation area; Paved road access; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Window treatments; Inside utility
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-103 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,106 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.92%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13207 Forge Ave	0.01mi	2/2.5	1,205 (+2%)	4mo	$229,999	$191	93
14004 Textile Run	0.04mi	2/2.5	1,205 (+2%)	2mo	$229,000	$190	93
14024 Textile Run	0.05mi	2/2.5	1,219 (+3%)	0mo	$211,000	$173	92
13173 Forge Ave	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,219 (+3%)	0mo	$219,999	$180	92
14012 Textile Run	0.04mi	2/2.5	1,219 (+3%)	2mo	$219,999	$180	91
13231 Forge Ave	0.03mi	2/2.5	1,219 (+3%)	3mo	$229,999	$189	91
14016 Textile Run	0.04mi	2/2.5	1,219 (+3%)	5mo	$219,999	$180	88
14028 Textile Run	0.05mi	2/2.5	1,219 (+3%)	5mo	$219,999	$180	88
14020 Textile Run	0.05mi	2/2.5	1,219 (+3%)	7mo	$224,999	$185	87
14052 Textile Run	0.07mi	2/2.5	1,219 (+3%)	7mo	$219,999	$180	85
14036 Textile Run	0.38mi	2/2.5	1,205 (+2%)	6mo	$229,999	$191	74
14040 Textile Run	0.38mi	2/2.5	1,219 (+3%)	6mo	$219,999	$180	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-50,111
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-76,331
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,211 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,450/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$260
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,341

Max offer price $215,106

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $56	-5% $-23	+0% $-103	+5% $-182	+10% $-262
Rent	-10% $-278	-5% $-190	+0% $-103	+5% $-16	+10% $72
Rate	-1.0pp $13	-0.5pp $-44	base $-103	+0.5pp $-163	+1.0pp $-223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $260 · $3,120/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   listed $229,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,450
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,122
• − Management: −$2,122
• − HOA: −$3,120
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$5,009
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,202
• After-tax cash flow: $-33/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This townhouse is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Resale Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — New appliances can attract more buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — New appliances can attract more buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Listed $229,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid